There is a lot of uncertainty over mid next week but what does look certain is that we’re set for some rather stormy weather with widespread gales and for some, severe gales with damage possible. This ties in with my autumn ideas. Remember I stated the real possibility of seeing 2-3 significant storms before the cold hits in December, well this may be storm No. 1.
For days now, models have been showing a deep low crossing the UK with a pressure below 980 mb. Yesterday the GFS had pressure to 967 over NW Ireland, producing severe southwest gales to NW England and Scotland late Wednesday. Now it’s 975 BUT, there are two lows which dance around one another and the question is, do they work with each other or do they compete?
While looking towards late next week. The models show these twin lows, embedded within the same steering flow, spinning around one another and swiping the UK repeatedly through next weekend. The details will change but what I will say is that, if you live in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the Northern part of Britain, be prepared for a potentially strong to severe storm crossing overhead between late Tuesday and early Thursday.
Here’s the latest GFS idea.
GFS (Courtesy of WeatherBELL)
Here’s the ECMWF.
ECMWF (Courtesy of WeatherBELL)
Cant remember the last time,that I have seen a good old fashion gale,in South East Cork in Eire.They seem to all pass around us for some reason.
Not looking as bad as hoped for Wales
There is a degree of complexity to this pattern so nothing can be ruled out just yet, Christopher.