Wild North Atlantic Pattern Next Week With Potential Windstorm Lurking For UK (Includes HD Video)

Written by on October 12, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 3 Comments

Through tomorrow we shall see a weakened version of the same front which brought the heavy rains yesterday and today head back south with the low. By Monday it pushes off into the Low Countries and in it’s wake we see some calm.

Enjoy any reprieve you get through this weekend and perhaps Monday because what may be lurking for mid next week, could bring issues. The pattern is becoming more complex as high pressure covers all escape routes for these lows and with the slow down and blocking off of the steering flow, we face a situation where new lows form, dance around each other and intensify into formidable gale-centres with pressures falling below 970 mb.

As you can see from the below GFS surface chart, a heck of a storm just off the southern tip of Greenland.

That system has a tail extending southeast and what this is doing is creating an area conducive for cyclogenesis and sure enough, a new low forms according to the model.

 

That new low as you can see from below, will creep east towards the UK and, like the powerhouse in the Davis Straits, this system will create or at least see a region to it’s southwest where it becomes an incubator for low pressure development. The trouble is, these systems which spin away but has nowhere to go, tends to bundle and pile up the air to a point where new centres form off each other and that will occur by Tuesday.

 

You can see that new low formed in the below chart. It is that low which we here in the UK need to watch carefully. That low, according to this current run, will track to the south of the original low and because high pressure is strong further east, the original low will get so close to the UK and then become deflected. As it does so, the low to it’s south will track east and then northeast. By storm 1 moving NW, this allows a more NE track of storm 2 and as it tracks towards the UK, it deepens.

 

The below chart for later Tuesday shows the two lows, which originally formed off the system in the Davis Strait, spinning around one another. Storm 2 to the south of 1 deepens as it’s windfield tighens up due to the high to it’s east. With storm one getting deflected back west, this will open the door for the more southern tracking storm 2 to turn northeast towards the UK and rather too close for comfort before it too gets deflected.

 

The below chart for Wednesday shows an intensifying storm 2 taking aim and crossing Ireland as storm 1 moves out of the way. Right now, the centre appears to cross Ireland before getting deflected off the west coast of Scotland but, with a pressure potentially BELOW 970 and very tightly packed southwest oriented isobars, this could be disruptive and, destructive, bringing damage.

It’s important to note this far out that a lot can chance but with the persistency in this scenario in recent days means this scenario is worth paying attention to and being prepared for a potential wind storm next Wednesday.

Right now, I could see widespread SW gales/severe gales with gusts even for inland areas surpassing 60-70 mph, perhaps 80 with exposed coastal areas open to 90+ mph winds. Heavy rains and flooding would also be a threat.

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  1. Michael says:

    It seems like a wild and unstabil pattern for the first half of next week. The major models seem to disagree a bit as to what is to happen afterwards. Both ECMWF and GFS are quite mild – particularly regarding my area which is Denmark. But when you look at the NAO and AO indices they are both generally negative, which doesn’t indicate a warm period in the longer run. What’s your take on it, Mark.

  2. catherine says:

    Omg dosnt look good mark!

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