Stalled Boundary To Bring 2-4 Inch Rains From Scottish Borders to North Highlands

Written by on October 11, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The slow moving frontal boundary responsible for all of today and tonight’s rain across the UK will eventually reach the east coast by morning as the low pressure centre pushes out over the North Sea and then stalls and meanders around for a further 72+ hours. That is a problem! The position of the low and the fact that it’s stalling means that while the front and heavy rains eventually push off the English North Sea coast later tomorrow morning, the northwestward bend in the boundary axis means trouble from Northumberland, the Scottish Borders on up to the North Highlands as moisture will get drawn off the North Sea and get pushed northwestwards. This sets the stage for a prolonged rain event starting tonight which may last well into Saturday from the Scottish Borders up through Grampian and extending into the North Highlands.

Expect a persistent and often heavy rain from tonight right through tomorrow extending into Saturday which should tally rainfall totals comfortably within the 2-4 inch range. This obviously raises the concern for not only local but regional flooding. The moist southeast flow could bring high rainfall totals and particularly heavy bursts to southeast exposure upslodes of the Pentland and Perthshire Hills as well as the Grampians and North Highlands.

The trouble with this low is it’s going nowhere through at least Monday of next week. The GFS continues to hold it in nearly the same position through 90 HOURS!

Check this out.

Tomorrow…

Saturday…

Sunday…

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