WED 10 OCT: UK & IRELAND REGIONAL FORECAST

Written by on October 10, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
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General Synopsis

After the the majority of the UK enjoyed the effects of an anticyclone since Saturday, this system is set to breakdown and shift allowing a developing low to cross the country over the next 36 hours. The leading edge and associated fronts will spread across Ireland and Northern Ireland during the first part of tonight bringing a spell of very wet and blustery weather. Come later into tonight and through the overnight, this heavy rain spreads across the Channel and Irish Sea and will affect all of Western Britain. The front appears to slow, so western areas stretching from Cornwall to the Northwest Highlands should expect some sizeable 6-12 hour rainfall totals. By later Thursday and into early Friday, the rain band clears much of the mainland but with the centre of circulation out over the North Sea, a front lies across Northern Scotland so here, heavy rains affect the Highlands during Friday, should stay drier from the Central Belt on south.

Scotland

Hope you’ve enjoyed this glorious spell of weather because it ain’t going to last much longer. The high which has brought us this fine, dry and settled spell is breaking down and this will allow a developing low to spread fronts across the country tonight and through tomorrow. Heavy rains will work into the Western Isles later tonight and will cross into the western mainland into early tomorrow morning. A slow down in the front may mean an increased chance of local flooding in Western areas anywhere from the Northwest Highlands down to Dumfries and Galloway. The Met Office has issued a Yellow Warning. This rain band accompanied by a blustery south, southeast wind will push across Scotland during Thursday and should exit out into the North Sea come Friday morning. However, the positioniong of the low and frontal boundary means that the Highlands will see a very wet Friday as the front extends from the North Sea, northwest across the North of Scotland. Further south it should stay drier.

A much milder night to come thanks to the increase in cloud, wind and eventual rain for western areas but a clearer night in the Northeast means another chilly early part of the night with possible frost but through the overnight, temperatures will rise will clouds increasing.

Lows tonight 5-8C in the West, 4 to 6C East, 2 to -2C Northeast/North

Highs tomorrow 12-14C.

MeteoGroup

England

While it’s been rather grey with always a risk of showers across the Southwest, it’s further east and north where the most notable chance in the weather is looming following a few days of brightness, although it hasn’t really been all that great across Southern areas of late BUT, there is a noteworthy spell of weather heading into the West and Southwest through tonight. A developing low progressing towards the UK will push a front into western areas tonight bringing heavy rain and a stiff southeast wind. This front will kick out the stubborn front which has been lingering over the Southwest since Saturday.

During the overnight, the heavy rains will become persistent over Devon, Cornwall and will extend northeast towards, likely reaching Birmingham, Manchester and London between 3-5am Thursday but it will be dawn or even mid morning before rains show signs of easing across the Southwest and so a risk of flooding is highly likely. This organised band of rain will spread across England through the day, covering a large part of the country by midday or early afternoon. Within this band there is always a chance of heavy bursts. The rains should eventually reach the North Sea coast by mid to late afternoon bringing a soggy Thursday night from Kent to Tyneside.

By Friday, it should be a much brighter, drier day though another front will push into the Southwest, bringing an enhanced shower risk along with a stiff NW wind on the backside of the low as by Friday morning it should be out over the North Sea. Throughout England, a cooler NW breeze will blow with a mix of sunshine and showers.

Lows tonight range from 5C in the North and East skies may be clear for a time to 13-15C in the sultry Southwest where low cloud and higher humidity holds. Highs tomorrow 12C-16C.

MeteoGroup

Wales

Over the course of today, it’s been a rather grey, gloomy sort of day with some light drizzly rain in places. This unfortunately will hold, only to give way to an incoming front which will present all of Wales with a night of heavy rain. These rains will cover the country during the overnight, accompanied by a stiff southeast wind. Temperatures will hold tonight at between 6-10C.

This overnight rain should clear Pembrokeshire by mid-morning Thursday allowing some brightness to appear but it’s once the rains clear that those stiff southeast winds veer northwesterly and these backside winds could bring coastal gales. Heavy pockets of linger look to linger across Wales throughout the day but there should be clearing for much of the country by dinnertime.

Friday looks to be a much improved day with plenty of brightness with just the odd threat of a shower here and there.

Northern Ireland

Following the cloudy picture of today, Ulster is set for a spell of very wet weather over the next 18-24 hours. You’ll notice the clouds thickening up as we progress into the evening hours and it’s really once we push midnight that the rains will arrive with force, making for a rather dismal night to be out and about. Winds will also freshen out of the southeast, may turn quite blustery along the coast.

Models suggest that while tonight is wet across the country, it’s from dawn onwards where the heaviest rains slowly cross the country. Be ready to face poor driving conditions and surface spray as well as potentially very heavy rains which could also impede visibility. As much as 1-2 inches of rain may fall between 11pm tonight and 5pm tomorrow.

Temperatures tonight will be well up on last night, dropping no lower than 5C. Tomorrow’s temperature will be kept cool due to all the rain, likely no warmer than 12-13C. Winds will be fresh out of the southeast during the first part of the day but veering northwesterly late Thursday into Friday once the rains push out.

Ireland

There will be little change in the weather across the majority of Ireland over the next 16-20 hours with a rather overcast day with just a chance of some late day sun in the north. The cloud, light rain and mist for many will extend into tonight keeping temperatures mild at 11-13C but later in the night and towards dawn and the rains pep up for much of the country as the front pushes through. Late day sunshine looks to be on offer for much of the country with a mix of sunshine and showers but those showers become fewer and further between towards dinnertime. Daytime highs will be just a degree or two up on tonight’s lows.

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