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General Synopsis

The general synopsis consists today and over the next 36 hours with a trough centered over the UK, filled with cold air, shown by low thickness values and cool 850 mb temperatures. A cool high pressure system sits within this trough which dominates the northern British Isles while a low to the southwest, positioned near the Azores has fronts backed up against the high, bringing cloud, rain and somewhat milder air across southern Ireland, south Wales and southwest, southern England. This setup looks to persist through tomorrow night but suttle changes appear to take place early Wednesday.

Scotland

After a glorious weekend dominated for most, by autumn sunshine, these conditions look set to continue through Wednesday thanks to high pressure. Clouds have built up through today in places but all in all it is a lovely October day. Despite sunshine you’ll notice the freshness in the air, this is due to the jet stream being is to our south (jet seperates warm to the south and cold to the north). Despite sunshine, the cold air aloft limits surface warming. Following a high of between 8C in the North and 12C in the South, any cloud should quickly dissipate by dark and with the chilly daytime base, clear skies and little or no wind, this sets the stage once again for another cold and frosty night. Expect a widespread frost, which for some may be quick hard outside of towns and cities. Main towns and cities have a chance at hitting 0 or -1C tonight while rural areas may fall towards -4C, even across the Central Lowlands. Sheltered areas of the Southern Uplands and Highlands may push -6, perhaps -7C by dawn tomorrow.

This sets the scene for another beautiful start Tuesday. The colder start could lead to a colder day with many struggling to hit double figures. As long as you’ve got a jacket on, it should be a lovely day. Tomorrow night will be a repeat performance to tonight.

Here shows tonight’s temperatures according to the GFS. Notice the pinks showing up over the Southern Uplands, Highlands and even the Central Lowlands, this indicates mid to low 20s F (-4 to -6C).

England

After a very pleasant Monday from the North Midlands to Scottish border, any cloud built up through the day will quickly melt away and like last night, beneath the perfect conditions for radiational cooling, we should see a widespread, hard frost between Cumbria and Manchester. Skies should be somewhat cloudier from Manchester southwards. Expect lows in towns and cities across the north to fall to between 1-4C but in rural areas, widely 0 to -3C. Classic cold spots such as Spadeadam, Shap, Topcliffe etc, -4 to -5C is quite possible.

Southwest and much of the South all the way to Birmingham have been generally cloudy with outbreaks of rain off and on. Temperatures are slightly milder down towards the Southwest where warmer air is trying to push up from the southwest. Another wave of heavier rain is expected to push northeast into Devon, Cornwall up the Bristol Channel and slide east across the South through tonight, perhaps easing by dawn Tuesday.

If you live in the Southwest, expect another rather dull, damp day with highs between 13-16C. Further east towards London and East Anglia, off and on rain will persist for much of the day but there’s a chance of late day clearing but always remaining cloudy and damp the further west you go. From Birmgham north, tomorrow should see clouds break during the morning after a reasonably dry night. From Manchester north, following a clear, chilly night, this should set the stage for a largely bright day with plenty of autumn sunshine. Highs will be somewhat cool at 11-13C. Another clear, cold, frosty night tomorrow night which extends south towards Birmingham.

Wales

Tonight will follow in the same footsteps as today across much of Wales with cloud holding and outbreaks of rain never far away. According to the models, another batch of heavy rain looks set to push into South Wales through tonight and looks set to dampen much of the country tonight. There’s always a chance of drier, clearer and cooler weather the further north you go.

Tomorrow looks much the same as today with 3 quarters of the country shrouded beneath a cloud deck which could clear across the north during Tuesday. Showers and longer spells of rain will always been never far from the South.

Highs range from 15C under the cloud, rain but milder air, 11-13C further north.

Tomorrow night could see less coverage of cloud and a chance of rural frost across North and Mid Wales.

Northern Ireland

The bulk of Northern Ireland has seen a lovely October day on the heels of a very pleasant weekend, all thanks to high pressure in control. The mix of sun and clouds of today should give way to clearing skies overnight tonight. This sets the scene for a widespread frost with towns and cities falling to between 1-4C with rural areas falling to freezing or below.

Tomorrow looks to be a repeat performance with lots of autumn sunshine and temperatures a little on the cool side but shouldn’t feel too bad within the light winds. Highs 10-13C. Another clear, cold, frosty night tomorrow night.

Ireland

Much of Ireland through this afternoon has a fair amount of cloud around along with outbreaks of rain. This looks to continue into tonight though rains should ease but cloudcover will linger. There is a chance of clearer, drier and cooler conditions near the Ulster border but all in all tonight will continue from today’s cloudy, damp theme.

Tomorrow will be another day of mostly cloudy skies with outbreaks of rain.