US Cold To Ease Then Return Late Next Week

Webcam from NDOR along I-80 at Kimball, Nebraska this morning.

The early October snows have been impressive in the last few days across the Rockies and Plains with yet more inches accummulating overnight across parts of North and South Dakota and Nebraska. While North Platte, Neb experienced their first snows of the season. Custer, SD recieved nearly 10″ of snow overnight.

Where it didn’t snow, it was cold. Many across the mentioned areas woke to temperatures in the 20s but there was also plenty of teens too.

Here is a selection of noteworthy morning lows courtesy of WeatherNation.

WeatherNation

While the core of cold was positioned over southern Saskatchewan and northern Montana, North Dakota this morning, this will be positioned further southeastwards tonight.

While it’s been balmy up the East Coast with the front back to the west, it’s all change through tonight and tomorrow as the front whips through and temperatures plunge. Expect a cold rain up the Eastern Seaboard through Sunday with snow breaking out over the mountains from West Virginia up through Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont , New Hampshire and eventually Maine. It looks like little will accummulate with perhaps a scant 1-2 inches above 2,500 feet.

Meanwhile the cold air is forcing it’s way deep into Texas with lows expected to fall into the 40s for Dallas, 30s for the Panhandle. There is a slight chance of a rain/snow mix through tonight into north Oklahoma though nothing will stick.

Here’s the upper chart off the ECMWF for today and tomorrow.

Notice the core of cold shifting southeast with warming taking place over Montana and the Dakotas. This is due to changes going on up over Alaska with the replacement of a high with a storm/trough. Remember that with an amplified pattern, usually when Alaska is warm, the Lower 48 is cold and when cold, it’s warm.

The models show a retreat from the cold over the Lower 48 early next week. This coincides well with the fact that both the NAO flips positive briefly and the typhoon has completed it’s recurve.

Despite the warming and ridging over much of the US early to mid next week. The charts show the return of a deep trough and cold plunge next week. The difference with next week’s cold is that is looks to be focused further east.

Check this out…

Here’s early to mid next week.

Notice the cold reloading and the trough beginning to drop south over Alberta and Saskatchewan, this presents more very cold air and snow to areas which have just had their taste of early winter. BTW, the low in Regina, Sask this morning was 12F. May be colder late next week after brief warming. There isn’t much time for North Dakota and Minnesota as the trough and next chunk of arctioc air is knocking on the door by Wednesday.

With this second blast, Montana and the Rockies stay mild but the core of cold may affect Minnesota through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Could we see more significant snow across the Northeast late next week into the weekend.

While this month looks cold for the most part and could end impressive in terms of cold compared to normal. The pattern is likely to ease into November with the NAO and more importantly the AO going positive.

In typical weak Nino years during cold Octobers, there tends to be a period of a few weeks where the cold backs off. This allows a stormier more Pacific driven pattern to take hold while the cold, arctic air has a chance to reload up over the pole.

 

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