NAO Flips Next Week, Models Suggest Settled Spell Starting This Weekend For UK/Ireland! (Includes HD Video!)

Written by on October 5, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I am strapped for time this morning so this is a short write-up, however the video goes into detail.

Video is lengthy but I make several points which I want to you know about regarding this pattern. This is an important period, potentially a cross roads with the NAO returning to positive for a time. This is what we WANT TO SEE if you want a cold, snowy winter in the UK and Ireland. The arctic oscillation also MUST FLIP TO POSITIVE for a solid 4-8 weeks and that should come and last much of November. The reason, the arctic air needs to build before spilling back southwards.

Check this out for Sunday off the GFS! Get out there and enjoy this weather, though grab a jacket, it won’t be that warm as there’s a trough overhead. Also make sure and get your scraper back in your car.. Several COLD nights are in store.

Ok, so you see the GFS surface chart with a high bang slap over the UK, now, here’s the upper chart off the ECMWF for Sunday. Notice the low heights and cold NW flow. This is a setup perfect for a glorious AUTUMNAL day and a very cold October night to follow UK-wide!

The lack of clouds, dry air and cold air mass in place suggests the cooling process kicks in fast with the transfer of daytime surface warmth back up into space takes place straight after sunset.

While it’s a chilly sunshine this weekend, there is a possibility that with this high (hopefully) sticking around at the surface, the ECMWF suggests UPPER LEVEL ridging working up into the UK beyond Monday, this could allow a warming of the atmosphere and potentially last gasp summer-like warmth Tuesday, perhaps Wednesday next week.

What I am seeing though is a more settled period which bodes well with my ideas for this autumn. Sept was going to be a wet and stormy month, October, given what history tells us, SHOULD be a break but it will be right back to wind, rain and MILD weather into November. November could be a soaker and very mild too. If there’s any winter and I am not ruling that out. It will be short cold (possibily with snow) on the backside of lows.

The true feedback of the warm Atlantic and a big old upper high over Greenland should come once winter arrives proper.

So, keep in mind there’s surface high pressure. Check this out for the mid and uppers off the ECMWF.




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