Written by on October 3, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

General Synopsis

The overall synopsis supports a two large troughs either side of the North Atlantic Ocean with one positioned over the British Isles and the other over the Northwest Atlantic. Both are complex with multiple centres.There is a fairly deep trough now well over the UK with low heights supporting very cold air above 850 or 5,000 feet above sea level. This cold air is supporting snow down to between 2-3,000 feet over the Scottish Highlands. Beneath this cold trough, there is 2 centres of low pressure between Scotland and Iceland. The closest to Scotland has a pressure down to near 990 mb, positioned near Shetland. This flow pattern is now supporting more of a NW air flow compared to a SW flow from recent days but a drying out of the atmosphere from north to south means showers become less and more in the way of sunshine should prevail. This also increases the risk of frost, particularly in rural areas, starting with Scotland tonight.


The showers are continuing to affect many areas of Scotland but there is several changes taking places. 1) Winds are lighter than they were this morning 2) their veering more NW 3) Surface temps are cooling 4) showers will become less through tonight 4) clearer skies shall support a chance of rural frost tonight. The coming days is looking better but won’t be particularly warm as the feed of N air means sunshine and highs of 10-12C by day but under clear skies and light winds at night, the temperatures drops off towards 2-3C in towns and cities and 0C or lower in rural areas. Tomorrow looks largely fine across much of Scotland with light winds and some decent swells of sunshine. It will be cool but in light winds and with sunshine, it shouldn’t feel too bad out there. Another cool, clear and potentially frost night again tomorrow night. On Friday it should be much the same with decent bright or sunny spells.


Early season snows covering the Cairngorms (Photo by Mark Vogan)



Looking at the remainder of this afternoon and if you live in Cumbria and Lancashire I’m sure your tired of looking at the rain. These soils are saturated so with the persistent rains continuing, don’t be surprised to see more local flooding. The rain showers have also been continuing to effect mainly Southwest and South Coast England. The Southwest where if you live in Devon, Cornwall into Dorset, Somerset has seen particularly heavy showers with downpours and strong, gusty winds rattling in from SW with mid and upper level energy adding beef to these, packing thunder, lightning and hail too. Heavy showers are also running along the English Channel coast. The Midlands is largely dry and even bright through the remainder of today. Into tonight and those showers pretty much everywhere should ease allowing clearing skies and with lighter winds, particularly in the west and south, will allow a cooler night with lows largely down into single figures. 6C for Carlisle, 7C Manchester, 10C for London and where clear, shave 2-3C off those numbers away from warmth of urban areas. Tomorrow, much brighter, calmer day on offer with lighter winds and more in the way of sun with just a few stray showers around. Cold air aloft means temperatures are pegged back at around 13C in the north around Carlisle to 15C in London. Thursday night into Friday and while cool, potentially frosty in rural Northern England, the first of 2 bands of rain push across Wales and into Southern and Midland England. During Friday a secondary, possibly heavier band will spread in behind and so the flooding chances return from Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Complex pattern by Friday with multiple lows stretching from the Central Atlantic to NW Russia. Moisture streams into Britain from a low associated with Nadine on Friday, could bring sizeable rain amounts to Wales and Central, Southern England from Thursday night to Saturday morning! (Courtesy of Meteogroup)


Another day of heavy showers but these should ease providing some late day sunshine. Showers should die away for many but an area of rain may linger on into the early hours of Thursday morning across northern parts of Wales, particularly around Snowdonia. Further south and it should be largely dry with pockets of clear skies which may allow temperatures to drip near to freezing in rural areas. Tomorrow and a largely drier picture with decent sunny spells. Temperatures between 12-14C. Showers should be mainly confined to higher ground. Thursday night into Friday and the first of 2 batches of rain work in from off the Irish Sea, this band could be heavy, persistent and widespread across much of the country with Mid and South Wales likely baring the brunt. Make the most of tomorrow’s brighter weather! Following the first batch, the second area of possibly heavier rain works in later Friday.

Northern Ireland

MUCH better day compared to yesterday throughout Ulster with fairly bright or sunny skies through this afternoon. This gives way to a cool, clear night and with light winds, don’t be surprised to see a touch of frost in rural areas. Lows widely down to between 4-6C. Tomorrow should be another day with long spells of bright or sunny skies, light winds and the cool 11-14C highs should feel not too bad. Tomorrow night and another cool, clear night with similar temps. Friday should be another decent day.


Today’s been much better than of late with less showers and lighter winds too. While showers and or clouds may linger tonight in western and southern parts, In central and northern areas, skies should be clearer and so temperatures ill take a dip between 2-4C in rural parts by morning. A mostly dry, bright day on offer tomorrow and a band of rain works in later in the afternoon across southern areas. Tomorrow night and it’s wet across southern areas while it should be drier and cooler beneath clear skies in the north. This makes for a wet, cloudy day Friday in the southern while it should be drier and brighter in the north.

GFS chart shows heavy rains streaming into SW Britain on Friday (Courtesy of MeteoGroup)

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