Frost Threat Next Few Nights, Decent Weekend On Cards, Uncertainly Over Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on October 3, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Back on Sunday I made mention of the frost threat Wednesday night and probably Thursday night too as a clear slot developed in between systems. Sure enough, the North Highlands got off to a cold start this morning with a widespread frost following a night of clear, calm skies. Though chilly further south, a breeze as well as passing showers kept temperatures up at around 5-6C. Tonight sees that frost threat drop south with clear skies.

Altnaharra dipped to -2.2C this morning with snow visible on nearby hills. Nothing unusual for early October but it’s a sure sign that winter’s fast approaching. Tonight, tomorrow night and probably Friday and Saturday nights, there is a risk of frost, particularly from Cumbria northward where skies should be clear and accompanied by light wind.

The increasingly cold air aloft has been turning precipitation wintry over the Scottish Hills. Check out this image captured this morning on the higher slopes at Glencoe Mountain Resort.

Courtesy of Glencoe Mtn Resort

There is a lull setting in between weather systems, a very brief break for the very unsettled pattern we’re currently in and will remain locked in.

What’s interesting is the GFS has surface high pressure building into the UK for this weekend but upper heights are fairly low. This suggests a potentially pleasant weekend with drier and brighter conditions but nothing particularly warm. Highs perhaps ranging from 12-14C in Scotland to 14-16C in the South of England. Nights should be cold with a threat of frost extending right down to the interior south of England. Wouldn’t be surprised to see such sites as Benson hit -2C Saturday morning given the surface high and low heights aloft. Could quite widely see -1 to -3C in sheltered rural areas.

The past few days now has seen the ECMWF upper level chart suggest a ridge and milder air working north early next week. What’s interesting is that the GFS shows surface low pressure back around the time the ECMWF has the ridge building. I believe one model is correct but not both.

Here’s the current GFS surface chart for this weekend. This suggests plenty of fine, dry and sunny weather!

MeteoGroup

Here’s the upper level ECMWF. While sunny, these low heights and cold 850 temps mean surface warmth is limited despite the sun shinning. Classic, bright, autumn weather on tap.

For the past few days now the ECMWF upper chart has been suggesting a ridge building north over the UK early next week. That’s all very well, especially since it’s held this now for a good 72 hours. Could make one believe warmth is on the way.

Here’s what it’s been showing over the past few days.

Monday..

Tuesday…

Don’t be fooled, here’s the GFS surface chart for Monday. 🙁

ressure chart…

MeteoGroup

Monday’s precipitation chart…

MeteoGroup

Here’s what it looks like Tuesday.

Pressure…

MeteoGroup

Precipitation…

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