TUE 2 OCT: UK & IRELAND REGIONAL FORECAST

Written by on October 2, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments
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General Synopsis

The overall synopsis across the Atlantic supports a low due north of the UK and due east of Iceland at around 988 mb, high positioned to the south of the UK neasr Azores at around 1020. Another high over Greenland at 1020 and a low over the Northwest Atlantic at around 996 mb.The low N of Scotland and E of Iceland remains the driver of the current UK weather map and shall remain so for the next 36 hours. A fresh to strong southwest air flow remains in control keeping the heavy, blustery showers going. The latest in a series of fronts sweeping E,SE is causing these heavy showers to clump together causing longer spells of rain for many across parts of Northern Ireland, Central and southern Scotland and a large area of Northern and Midland England.

Scotland

Today, like yesterday has very much been a day of sunshine and frequent/heavy and blustery showers with some embedded rumbles of thunder and perhaps some small hail mixed in. These will continue throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening and according to the latest precip forecast off the GFS, the development of more heavy, widespread showers which comes together over Northern Ireland should push across the Channel and into Scotland overnight bringing a fairly wet night across the Central Belt down through Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Dumfries and Galloway. These could become slower moving as the core of stronger winds exits to the south.

Expect some local surface flooding with these overnight rains. Also expect quick temperature drops during and after these showers. Overnight temps range from 7-9C but draw a line through the Southern Highlands, perhaps at around Pitlochry on north, skies should be clear for much of the night and with little wind, lows should fall towards 1-2C with some sheltered Glens dipping to 0 or -1C with frost.

Into Wednesday and I’m a little more optimistic that the frequency and widespread nature of the showers should be less the overnight showers beginning to work SOUTH of the border. Lighter winds and hopefully longer spells of sun with perhaps some drying to be had.

A cool day to be had with highs of only 11-13C but winds should be light, making it less chilly feeling.

England

There’s lots of showers around through this afternoon but radar indicates two main lines showing with some intense embedded cells stretching from from south Cumbria, extending up through Northumberland into the Scottish borders, another stretching from South Wales up through the heart of the Midlands and into Yorkshire and Humberside. There’s some very heavy, thundery downpours push up from Wales into the Midlands as of this writing.

These rain bands are being enhanced by frontal energy and increasingly colder air being drawn down from the north in the upper levels.

Down across the South and the showers that are currently hit or miss will pep up and become more frequent into this evening and overnight as the front works through. Winds have been blowing strong out of the southwest with gales along the South Coast adding to the increasingly dismal end to the day here. Tomorrow will see a fairly organised area of rain, associated with the front across the South while another organised area of rain which affecets Scotland overnight tonight heads into Northern England. This should work south with showers hit and miss in between both the rains in the north and along the South Coast.

Winds should ease after a blustery start but by no means will it warm up much. Expect 12-14C at best.

Today surface pressure & precip chart off the GFS (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)

Wales

With exposure from the fresh to strong southwest wind and embedded energy continuing to pour in from the Atlantic, showers are widespread, frequent and heavy throughout much of Wales, like we saw yesterday. Gales are blowing in exposed coastal areas but as the moisture streams in and rides up the hills, west facing slopes will see persistant rain with little sun or dry interludes. Tonight and while the showers are kept going, these should have less dominance and coverage with pockets of clearing developing. Winds will always be fresh everywhere and strong along the coast. Tomorrow and it’s a repeat performance.

Tomorrow’s highs, 11-14C, feeling cooler in the wind.

Northern Ireland

A day of sun and showers but through this afternoon and radar indicates some very intense rains developing across a large area of central Ulster. This will be something worth paying close attention to if your travelling. Tonight and the heavy, persistent downpours should ease as eventually by dawn tomorrow should clear eastwards into Southwest Scotland and into N England. Tomorrow and it’s another day with sun and showers though these showers should ease in coverage and intensity. Tonight’s lows 7-10C, tomorrow’s high’s 13-15C.

Current radar from this afternoon (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)

Ireland

Like, Northern Ireland and the UK, it’s a day of sunshine and blustery, heavy showers, always most prevalent in exposed western and northern areas though the north half of the Rep may see some of the heavy cells over Ulster sinking south of the border for a time so watch out for a quick buildup of surface water on roads etc. Into tonight and showers ease, leaving a night of showers with clear spells. Cool at 5-9C, milder in the west where winds are fresher.

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  1. calum says:

    This is amazing Mark. Now I can get my Long, Medium AND short range forecasts all from the one place! Running my own website I can tell how much work you put into this website and I don’t know how you manage it what with having another job as well. Kudos to you! I’ve learned so much since following you about our weather and weather in general and you manage to keep it simple enough but still fascinating and plenty detailed.
    What is your fav bottle of plonk? I’ve decided that if I get 12″ of lying snow in my garden at any point this winter I will buy you it and personally deliver it to you. (because my excitement for wintry weather can not be contained) 🙂

    Cheers.

    • Mark Vogan says:

      Wow.. Cheers Calum.. Delighted your enjoying the site and my work. Don’t know how I have the time either I guess you can call it passion for the weather. Appreciate the kind words. Well I guess I like vodka. Heck the Russians love it and their use to the cold!! haha. Hope you enjoy the writeup just up.. Lots on there!!

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