A Complex Mess For Europe Over The Next Week, No Early Taste of Winter For UK

Written by on October 1, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The storms continue lining up across the Atlantic with low pressure dominating the UK and it looks set to remain that way up till at least the weekend.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for 3 hrs from now.

Note the storm east of Iceland, this is driving our weather by sending fronts, rotating around this system into the UK, keeping the showers, wind and unsettled weather going. Also note the storm over NW Russia and even the two lows between two high’s in central Europe. These lows are in fact keeping things rather unsettled across a large chunk of central Europe while it’s warmer than normal further east towards Moscow..

Here’s the precip chart for 9 hours from now showing the front pushing off the SE coast of Britain and the unsettled weather over N Italy extending north into the Alps. Note the NW Russia low bringing a fair amount of rain there.

Here’s where things become complex. If you notice in the below GFS surface chart, beneath a large sprawling upper trough, multiple low pressure centres are forming and this certainly makes for a messy weather map. While the frontal boundary which exits England tomorrow pushes east across the western mainland, so this pushes the lows and unsettled weather further east over the heart of Europe. The storm over NW Russia gets kicked east allowing the eastern Europe ridge and unusual warmth to build north as the low exits east.

For Friday…

According to thie above chart, there is FIVE low pressure centres. The large low covering a large proportion of the central Atlantic has a small (990mb) low to it’s E, NE, that’s in fact Nadine. A system that appears by this time to be out of the game. What also may be out of the game is the dominant ridge over western Europe. Could this be seeing a more zonal, flat lining of the negative NAO?

Ultimately the NAO remains negative and until it actually flips, the trough will remain over Western Europe with a ridge further east. However, if the NAO goes positive which the ensembles continue to show that it may, then the flow should become much more zonal. This doesn’t end the unsettled weather for the UK but what it will do is break down the ridge over Europe and this should allow Atlantic air to flow freely across the continent. On the flip side, the latest ECMWF does show the ridge again for the UK. Remember it showed it for this weekend several days ago before flipping around… Well it’s back for beyond this weekend. Like i’ve said before. If we can break down the positive heights over Greenland then there’s much more reason to believe a brief ridge builds warmer, more settled weather into the UK. Despite my wet, mild and stormy October and autumn idea overall, I have stated that we should get a last glimpse of summer and before the end of October.

Check this out. This is what the latest ECMWF shows.

Note the western ridge but the cold trough dominating the heart of Europe. Also notice that it’s detaching from the jet stream.

Here’s Wednesday.

This post has been highlighting the complexity of the pattern. Notice in the obove upper chart off the ECMWF for Wednesday shows 3 upper level cut off lows.

While many think an early cold blast is comiong to the UK, I certainly don’t see it. The NAO looks to head up and so should the blocky pattern. I expect the transition from a blocky unsettled pattern to a zonal unsettled pattern over the next 2-3 weeks here in western Europe.

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