European Model Backs Off From UK Warmth Next Weekend, NAO Flips

Written by on September 29, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The european model is showing a very different scenario from 24 hours ago for next Saturday with the above chart being last night’s run. The new run is below!

It’s basically complete opposites but I always say, never trust an individual run but if you look at the overall pattern and indexes such as the NAO etc, you should be able to get a better idea as to what model run is more likely. For example. With a -NAO, last night’s run would be less plausible given the tendency for stronger heights back over the N Atlantic but a positive NAO and with heights falls, it would be easier for height rises and ridging over the UK, so don’t rule out the idea of warmth and sun to end next week. Honestly, it could go either way right now.

What’s more likely is the flip back to positive in the NAO and the uncertainly becomes raised as the daily european run suits the ensemble’s flip back to positive in the NAO with a flattening out of the flow. Cold air should retreat somewhat back towards the north with height falls over Greenland. Keep in mind what I’ve been banging on about for some time now, there’s a lot of energy in the North Atlantic with a perfect incubator for storm development and intensification with building cold to the north, lingering heat to the south and very warm waters.

Another storm system will pass by between Scotland and Iceland over the next 36 hours. This low with pressure well into the 980s (mb) will drag a soaking cold front through tonight and tomorrow across Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland, winds will become strong out of the southwest with coastal gales. On the backside, guess what? Come on you know the drill by now… heavy, frequent and blustery showers with an added bite to the air just like we woke up to this morning as the latest low pushed off towards Scandinavia. Those blustery showers will linger through Monday and probably Tuesday then in comes another system..

Next weekend is open to question as it could go either way right now with a trough dragging cold air down from the northwest or we could still get that ridge. As already mentioned, with the breakdown of the Greenland block, a UK ridge is certainly more possibile in my opinion.

Here’s the NAO ensemble chart..

 

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