Typhoon Recurve Rule and Following 6-9 Day Canada/US Cold Blast? (Includes HD Video)

Written by on September 27, 2012 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

Thought I would touch on a few points regarding the pattern into NEXT WEEK for both the United States and Canada. Noticed me talking about Typhoon Jelawat? Well this system is going to recurve but unfortunately it won’t miss land. The southern Japanese island of Okinawa looks to be yet again a target and powerful Typhoon Jelawat could make for a 3rd MAJOR hit on the island since August 27! Think about it. Imagine Florida or Cape Hattaras was hit by a Cat 3 or greater storm 3 times in barely a month… Unreal but reality in the western Pacific basin.

Anyway, there is a rule. Recurving typhoons in the western Pacific can often but not always, lead to a buckling of the jet orientation over the North Pacific which can pump the ridge up into Alaska and the West Coast of North America, in turn leading to a Central and Eastern US trough so another taste of fall, perhaps even a taste of winter is possible mid to late next week as a result of this recurving typhoon. The time period is often 6-9 days if this system recurves over or east of Japan but can be nearer 14 days if it recurves further west towards China.

Lets watch this and see if we get another autumnal blast down over Canada, into the Northern Rockies, Midwest and even the East late next week.

Does the model see this? Here’s today…

Notice the jet and flow west to east and well north of the US-Canada border. No real cool air to be had.

Here’s for Monday.

By Monday, not so much do you notice the colder air being pulled south from the arctic down into Alaska and Northern Canada but notice the jet, it’s becoming buckelled thanks to to the ridge pumping north of the typhoon as it moves off to the northeast away from Japan. This NW Pacific ridge in turns develops a trough to the east over the Bering Sea/Alaska, pumps the ridge up the US West Coast.

By Thursday.

By the time we get out to next Thursday, according to the ECMWF, the ridge pulls back and pumps north up into Alaska, this forces a piece of the polar vortex to break off the main reservoir and dive south into a deepening trough which will transport very cold air down the east face of the Canadian Rockies, perhaps raising threat of Calgary, possibly Edmonton seeing their first snows. Calgary likely has a better chance. An upper low will help drive the cold air south and deepen the trough as well as push moisture down along with the cold so snowfall over the Great Lakes is also possible.

Notice those blues dropping down through Manitoba and Ontario. This is most deffinately the coldest air of the season coming if this holds true.

Finally, here’s way out to next Saturday!

Notice the jet split under the western ridge with the northern branch taking that classic big northward loop which really grabs a hold of the bitter air in the arctic forcing it southbound down central Canada, The southern branch cuts underneath but actually appears to stop the cold air from really getting down into the heart of the US. Notice how the cold air gets deflected across Ontario and into Quebec. It will be interesting to see if the southern branch can hold back this cold plunge from crossing the border. This first possible taste of winter may bring a substantial snow and early October cold blast to a decent chunk of Canada from the Rockies to near Montreal LATE NEXT WEEK.

It will be interesting to see if this not only happens but if it does, whether it gets into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and perhaps the Northeast by late next week into the weekend.

This afternoon I had the honor of an interview on a special weather and natural disaster related show on ‘Hype is Here’ radio.

If you would like to hear my interview, here’s the link.


Big thank you to Adam Carey and Gary Karp for having me on the show today. Terrific job guys.

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