US OCTOBER FORECAST: Looking Stormy Across US, Colder In West, Warmer In East

Written by on September 26, 2012 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

Courtesy of TWC

The pattern is now undergoing major changes with the return of a more positive NAO/AO with modeling showing the flattening out of the jet which will push the cold air back up into Canada and allow maritime air to flood the Lower 48 for the most part. This will however send in storms as we progress into October and that can present the chance of dips in the jet on the backside of lows which can pull down colder air out of the Gulf of Alaska. The overall October pattern for the US appears to likely be one of mild rather than cold for the majority. I am of the belief that a more westerly flow pattern should dominate with troughiness in the West which could kick start the snow season over parts of the Intermountain West and could also end the ultra dry spell for the Pacific Northwest. In turn the East is more likely to have a ridge and will likely be milder than usual.

Check out the October forecast graphic off TWC. This I do agree with to a point with colder in the West. Though I think the Great Lakes will average near or slightly above normal, I don’t think it will be quite as warm. Given the potential for more positive than negative in both the NAO and AO but later in the month, a drop into negative should support colder. The positive doesn’t set the scenbe I don’t belief for the overall winter but following a mostly negative summer and a likely negative overall winter, there will be periods in which both indexes go positive and this is one of those periods which could last through at least mid October. It also allows the cold air to build over the pole too.

I do think we could see some impressive cold mid to late month from the Pacific Northwest to Central Rockies, perhaps even into the Southwest and perhaps even a big snowstorm for Denver

Check out the NAO ensemble run.

Tags: , , ,

Follow us

Connect with Mark Vogan on social media to get notified about new posts and for the latest weather updates.

Subscribe via RSS Feed Connect on YouTube

Leave a Reply

Top