Active Atlantic Storm Train To Swing Another 2-3 More Depressions Across UK Next 5-7 Days (Inc HD Video!)

Written by on September 26, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

While the worst September storm in 30 years continues to exit off to the south back down to where it came from, we will see a much brighter, drier day tomorrow although this won’t last long as the pattern is loaded with more stormy action in coming days.

While summer has overall been a washout with some respite in August, the North Atlantic is very active and likely to grow more and more active as we see the cold build across the north and residual warmth lingering further south. Factor in a cold PDO, VERY warm AMO and weak El Nino and you’ve got the recipe for a very interesting and wild autumn throughout Northwest Europe.

A powerful jet stream riping across Atlantic will continue to feed deep lows, energized by the abnormally warm North Atlantic and abnormal cold feeding off Greenland, across the British Isles and as the NAO begins to flip back towards neutral, this fits well with my autumn forecast of mild but stormy. Over the next 7-10 days, the models suggest at least 3 more ‘strong, sub-988 mb lows’ will pass by to the north of the UK swinging cold fronts through and increasing winds.

Courtesy of MeteoGroup

The storm which struck in the last 48 hours is one which raises questions about why we’re seeing a seemingly steep increase in heavy rains, flooding and storminess. My answer is down to the cold PDO, warm AMO and the amount of energy this is releasing to the atmosphere. Summers are very wet and autumn arguably moreso. Warm and cold do not mix and so storms are created to find balance. This in my opinion is why the UK is turning wetter and wilder.

Rains have been prolific not just in the past 72 hours, throughout the summer but in recent years because of the added fuel and moisture passing lows can collect off the North Atlantic. This happened in the past during previous NAO’s, it’s the reason for such low arctic sea ice this year.

The next low will pass to the north on Friday but will sweep a band of rain across the country as well as bring the return of strengthening winds.

Given the current setup and what the longer range models suggest, we are likely to see a wet, windy and milder than normal autumn with potential for 1 or 2 major wind and rain events which could present widespread damage and flooding. Remember what I said in my recent write-up regarding Sea surface temps and winter. This year has similarities to 2009, the last El Nino which was also weak. The PDO was cold and the AMO warm, only the PDO is colder and the AMO warmer so even an even wilder autumn compared to the October-November period in 2009 is possible. There is a significant chance during October and November, perhaps even into early December of major storms which deliver flooding rains and storm-force winds as well as abnormal warm surges ahead of systems and abnormal cold on the backside.

Looking ahead at next week and another system arrives mid week but interestingly, the GFS shows a large high building over the British Isles late next week into the weekend. Lets see if this happens.

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  1. calum says:

    I have a (probably stupid) question. It’s interesting to see how the High and Low pressure areas kind of “bounce” off each other a bit like solid objects. They seem to me to sort of push each other around a bit so to speak particuarily the big Highs telling the lows where they can and cant go. Now I would have assumed that if an area of low pressure met an area of high pressure that the high pressure would simply “flow” into the low pressure in an attempt to find equilibrium? Sort of the same way if you fill a balloon and then let it go. Nature always wants to balance out. So how come These high and low pressure systems on earth act the way they do? Why doesn’t the air rush from one to another until everything is balanced out?

    Sorry if that makes no sense or is just plain crazy but it’s something ive wondered for a while.

    • Mark Vogan says:

      That is a good question, not stupid, Calum. A lot depends upon the strength of either the high or the low and what setup there is, i.e the NAO, PNA indexes etc etc. Keep in mind, that lows form in troughs and depending upon the ‘amplification’ of the pattern, lows can ‘pump’ or build a ridge to it’s east or in fact weaken it. Remember that both high and low pressure systems are like wheels of rotating air. There’s a constant dance when it comes to the atmosphere. Heat transporters. Moving air from once place to the other. Bare in mind that the jet stream basically runs and with troughs forming and the air piling in, with nowhere for it to escape, low pressure systems form. Also, remember that in our part of the world when the flow is generally west to east. low pressure is often followed by high pressure but when you’ve got that ‘block’ wherever is may be, the high is stronger than the low. Ther jet stream which lows both form and run along, go AROUND a high, so therefore the low doesn’t have the control, the high does so the low dances around the high. Does this make sense? lol.

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