Very Stormy Weather On It’s Way For UK & Ireland! (Includes HD Video!)

Written by on September 22, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

A very stormy spell of weather is on it’s way to ALL areas of the UK as well as Ireland over the next 4 days as models converge and remain persistent in bringing up a deepening low from the Bay of Biscay. This feature is a system which developed, was spawn from once-Tropical Storm Nadine.

Both GFS and ECMWF show Nadine intensifying but drifting west, not east from the Azores region of the Atlantic and that means there’s little to no threat now to Portugal. However, the child of Nadine IS heading Britain-bound with Southern England and South Wales likely to begin feeling it’s effects tonight into particularly through Sunday.

The model continues to show deepening of the centre with pressure within the centre falling through the 990s (mb) over the next 36 hours and into the 980s by Monday over the Midlands/Northern England.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

As the centre of circulations pushes north, northeast, winds increase out of a E,SE direction and these will be accompanied by a band of VERY HEAVY rain which will affect most areas stretching from Cornwall to eventually East Anglia by morning As much as 2-4 inches of rain may fall throughout Southwest, South, Southeast England over the next 24 hours. Possible embedded thunderstorms could enhance rains locally, becoming torrential which greatly increases the risk of flooding, even flash flooding.

During Sunday, the area of heavy rain will progress northwards, eventually reaching Northern England later in the day.

As for wind. Expect strong winds everywhere across the South of Britain with sustained winds increasing throughout tonight and tomorrow. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, gusts of 30-50 mph can be expected widely even for inland areas of South Wales and all of Southern England (particularly Southwest England). Coastal areas may see sustained winds of 25-35 mph, gusts to 60+.

It will be late in the day Sunday when the centre crosses the South Coast and so winds will continue increasing from a SE direction throughout Sunday.

MONDAY

By late Sunday into Monday, the GFS shows the low continuing to deepen as the centre advances north up into the West Midlands. This will push the heavy rain band north into Lancashire east to Yorkshire on up to Cumbria and Northumberland where rains could be very heavy and persistent as the boundary becomes enhanced by warm, moist air pushing up into colder, drier air.

Flooding rains are highly possible up over Northern England by Monday morning and as Monday progresses, Southern Scotland could get in on this heavy to torrential rains. Expect widely 1-2 inches, locally 3 with local flooding likely. The worst of the heavy rains should be east of Ireland, over the UK.

As for winds, the centre by midday Monday drops to around 984 mb and isobars tightens. Expect NW,W winds with coastal gales for Ireland, much of Wales and Southern England while southeasterly gales crank across Northern England and much of Southern and Central Scotland.

The GFS has increasing winds throughout the day Monday for Northern England and Scotland with sustained winds of 15-25 across inland areas, 20-40 mph for North Sea coast, gusts could crank to 50-60 mph for inland areas, 60-70 mph along coat and over high terrain.

Strongest Winds Expected Tuesday Over Scotland?

The GFS shows the centre of the low continuing to creep north towards Southern Scotland by early Tuesday with pressures bottoming out at near 978 mb. Increased tightening of the isobars indicate severe easterly gales for perhaps not just East Coast Scotland, Northeast England but for inland areas, just north of the Central Lowlands. Gales are likely between Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Check these charts out!

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  1. perry says:

    Fantastic quality video. Wow what an improvement. Sounds like a wet day at work here in Boston Had our first frost this morning looking forward to many more.

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