Complex Series Of Lows Are Set To Invade The UK/Ireland Starting Thursday, Extends Into Next Week!

Written by on September 19, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It would appear that autumn is well and truely here as you only had to go outside to feel that chill in the air over the past few days. The pattern has changed and looks set to stay that way with no warmth through at least the remainder of September. While glancing at the models this afternoon, there is a complex pattern setting up starting tomorrow appears to last well into next week.

The latest ECMWF chart for next week shows that after this weekend’s return to storminess which hints at upper height rises but never really exceeding has a renewed trough carving out and so the mid and upper levels will cool further again. They never really warm right enough but what the ECMWF is showing for next week is renewed cold coming down aloft looks but the complications come when you’ve got a very active SURFACE storm train, i.e, it looks to remain VERY unsettled as well as cold. Next week may look as well as feel more like LATE NOVEMBER.

Here is the GFS surface and precipitation charts for tomorrow.

And for Friday.

As you can see, once the ‘squeezed’ low pushes through the weakness in the ridge, high pressure builds in during Friday. The stalled, wet boundary drapped over S Scotland/N England Thursday into Friday will sink south, bringing wet weather to southern Britain while sun builds in from the N, W.

The southward clearing sets the scene for a very pleasant Saturday and I think Friday night into Saturday could present a substantial frost threat for much of rural Britain.

Check out the surface synopsis for Saturday, one low exits to the east, we settle in a bubble of chilly calm but cast your eyes to the SW of our shores, that’s a rather active wave of ‘unsettled’ heading our way!

Note the blobs of purples within those two lows heading our way!!

Flooding Rain Potential For Southern Britain On Sunday, Stays Dry Further North!

Following a very pleasant Saturday, the next pulse of rain spreads up from the S,SW during the day on Sunday as low pressure replaces the high. This rain could be noteworthy as the model shows heavy and persistent rains across a broad area of the South. You can see this from the below GFS precipitation charts and appears to be confined to southern areas while central and northern areas stay mainly dry and bright. Southerly winds may pull milder air temporarily up.

Obviously when your looking 90-100 hours out, the details will alter but the pattern turns more complex as we get into Monday as the heavy rains in the South from Sunday clear out and rain spreads across Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England while the South gets a VERY BRIEF break. Rains clear from the North while another heavy pulse of rain sweeps in from the south in association of the next low pushing up hot on the heels of the last.

Check these maps out from Monday-Tuesday!

Note the 3 (strong) centres of low pressure all beneath one large upper low.

This is for Monday.

Next Wave Of Heavy Rain Sweeping Into South Monday Holds Strong All The Way To NI, Scotland By Tuesday

Here comes the next wave of heavy precipitation sweeping into Cornwall, Devon and across the South. According to this model, this intense band holds strong all the way to Scotland by Tuesday. It has VERY INTENSE rains over Ireland.. Low Pressure Trio Merges Into One Strong Sub-984 Gale Centre

The GFS for later Tuesday into Wednesday shows the multiple centres merging into one strong low sub-984 low which could bring widespread gales across the UK along with heavy, flooding rains.

Here’s what the charts show.

All the above is subject to change of course given this is WAY OUT and factoring in the complexity of this pattern with undercutting storms beneath a cold trough, this will chop and change but will be interesting to see how this weekend into next week plays out. It could be a real taste of what may lie ahead for us here in Britain and Ireland from now through the end of November.

Medium range models show the amplification of this pattern flattening with the neutralisation of the NAO and a likely return to positive in the Arctic Oscillation. This of course would allow intensification of the arctic reservoir up over the pole  as the polar vortex intensifies.

Finally, here’s a look at the ECMWF’s chilly look at next week!

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