UPDATED: Tuesday Could Be Coldest In A Few Months For Some Across UK & Ireland (Includes Video!)

Written by on September 17, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

The heavy, stinging showers of today should ease through tonight with some lingering in places but with a flow drawing increasingly cooler air down from the NW, under those clear skies, it will feel cold tonight. Even in those passing showers, temperatures may hover at only 5 or 6C with sleet or snow falling over the highest hills.

Where skies are clearest for longest and winds relatively light, rural areas may dip towards 3 or 4C with some sheltered Highland Glens possibly dipping to 0-1C.

Tomorrow will consist of more heavy showers but they won’t be a widespread as today and so there should be more in the way of sunshine for many, especially into the afternoon. Highs tomorrow for many throughout the UK and Ireland may see their coldest since early May with many in the North likely to struggle to even get beyond 10C. Factor in a stiff northwest wind and you could drop 3-5C off the air temperature.

Into tomorrow night and with surface high pressure beginning to build in during Tuesday afternoon, we should have a calmer Tuesday night into Wednesday morning but this sets the stage for potential frost across a more widespread area outwith towns and cities. Clear skies, light winds and cold air aloft I expect should result in lows across many parts of inland Scotland, England and possibly Northern Ireland falling to nearer 1-3C with spots dropping below 0C Have your scraper handy!.

The above chart shows today’s setup with the NW flow and showers. Tomorrow will be one of an improving picture but by Wednesday, milder air will begin to work in from the Atlantic and the next low begins to make it’s presence felt. Although still cool, the air will begin to warm and by Thursday a band of rain appears to work into Scotland, Northern Ireland from the west along with much milder air. The South should escape with mostly dry and bright weather.

By Friday, according to the GFS, a near stalled boundary across central England, North Wales should devide the UK into two with brighter, drier but blustery conditions in both the north and south divided by a near stalled band of rain in the middle. This weekend sees a low take the southern route into France while another low is up over Iceland. The split jet stream means the UK should see a bubble of surface high pressure bring reasonably settled conditions.

Next weekend will see another system push through before another large and deep trough is carved out, drawing chilly air from Iceland down over the British Isles. This setup with a mean ridge over the North Atlantic and a trough over us means we’ll continue to see unsettled and quite chilly weather frequently over the next couple of weeks.

Any warmth trying to build in from the Atlantic will only come in advance of the next low and height rises should get quickly removed by backside troughs which will drag in renewed cold shots.

Yes, summer is certainly gone. This doesn’t mean we can’t get a little taste of indian summer further down the road though but if it does come, it’ll be October as some models hint at very cold nights ahead as we leave September and enter October.

 

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  1. perry says:

    Tried to watch video but said this video is private

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