Strongest Winds Hit Tonight Into Tomorrow across Scotland, Northern Ireland!

Written by on September 13, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Satellite image courtesy of Weather Online

Thought I would do a brief post just to clarify how strong I think winds will be overnight tonight. While not a big deal really south of Cumbria with a stiff breeze blowing for most, it should be a rather windy old night throughout Scotland and across the northern half of Northern Ireland and the Donegal areas of the Rep as a deep 969 mb remnant tropical low crosses Iceland and heads across the Norwegien Sea over the next 24 hours.

If you live in the areas mentioned above, you’ll notice the winds picking up out there now and if you live in the north of Scotland or on the isles, it’s already blowing a stiff gale with gusts to 97 mph already on top of Cairngorm Summit, elevated 1245m in the Central Highlands. Over the next 12 hours, we’re likely to see gusts reach 100-115 mph at this mid-level altitude. This shows how strong those winds are just a few thousands feet above the surface. As I’ve mentioned many times in the past, sometimes, these more intense winds can align in the atmosphere from top-down and a mixing or transfer of energy down to the surface can occur, therefore some isolated gusts could top 85 or 90 mph tonight over the Isles if conditions setup perfectly.

Cumbria & North Pennines

Sustained: 15-25 mph (Gusts 50-60 mph)

Southern Uplands & Central Lowlands (Including M8 Corridor)

Sustained: 20-30 mph (Gusts 55-70 mph)

Central Highlands to North Coast Incl Western & Northern Isles

Sustained: 25-40 mph (Gusts 70-80 mph)

High Elevations of Highlands/Grampians

Sustained: 40-55 mph (Gusts 80-105 mph)

The combination of wet soils and fully leaved trees mean we could sees uprooting of trees anywhere across Scotland and Northern Ireland tonight as well as Cumbria, Lancashire.

Here’s a quick glance at the models. Yes, I think we can all agree it’s going to be a rough next 12 hours.

NCEP GFS surface pressure forecast for late tonight (Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models)

NCEP GFS surface pressure forecast for Friday AM (Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models)

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