Ensembles Show Tanking NAO/AO Which Could Bring Early Cold, Snow To Iceland, UK, USA Next 10-20 Days!

Written by on September 13, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 1 Comment

We have a very interesting pattern is evolving across the Northern Hemisphere over the next 2-3 weeks starting early next week as the latest ensembles suggest a significant tanking in both the NAO and AO. This follows a couple of weeks of positive. In the chart above, this shows the level of blocking expected and you can clearly see this chart corresponds well with the below NAO and AO charts.

Interestingly, I have been paying more attention lately to the daily GFS, ECMWF 10 day outlooks and it’s interesting how both these and other models show a real strong chill coming down on both sides of the Atlantic next week. These models have always been swaying more and more towards a Greenland block with a significant cold shot dropping south over the central and eastern US and over the UK from mid next week on in response. A negative Arctic Oscillation of course would allow a transfer of the truely cold stuff (albeit early season but for the arctic, that’s darn cold) to get released south and the matching up with the negative NAO means we, along with the eastern US would likely see a pretty cold next 10-20 days.

Take a look at the below chart showing this tanking of the Arctic Oscillation.

And here’s the NAO forecast!

What does this mean? Well I am beginning to sway towards a rather cold but also unsettled, pattern for the next 10-20 days which could well take us into October given what these ensemble runs are showing. The models also show an intense, unusually strong Greenland cold pool and with the building of a blocking high over the North Atlantic and Greenland developing, then I guess the setup supports more cold than mild looking out through the rest of September. Of course with what’s possibly coming down next week from Greenland and Iceland, well it may feel closer to November, never mind October out there from mid week on across the UK with big snows down across the Alps, perhaps even over the Scottish Highlands believe it or not.

Iceland Looks Set To See More Biting Northerlies Accompanied By Blizzards Over The Next 7-14 Days

The blizzard of last Monday over Northern Iceland certainly wasn’t the only snow for September. Within the next 7-14 day period, models show major cold sweeping off Greenland with biting northerlies returning and night minimums of 10F over the Interior. Folks this is JANUARY-LIKE cold.

Take a look at the below charts showing cold air gripping Greenland and Iceland. Notice the cold over Scotland and northern England as well as Norway in the second chart for next Tuesday.

NCEP GFS temp chart for Saturday shows temps of -30 to -40F over interior Greenland. (Chart courtesy of WeatherBELL Models)

And the chilly look for Iceland next Tuesday where interior lows may get to 10F or lower!

NCEP GFS temp chart for next Tuesday shows cold temps for Iceland, Britain and Scandinavia (Chart courtesy of WeatherBELL Models)

First Snowfall Of The Season Look Likely Next Week For Scotland, Major Snows Possible In The Alps!

Check out this ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps for next Wednesday. That’s a deep trough centred right over the UK with very chilly air aloft. Clear skies on any night next week could support the first real frost and lows below freezing by a good degree of two. Northwest winds will also likely bring the first blanket of snow to the Highlands and or Grampians. Yes, it is rather early for all this I know.

As these sharp cold fronts knife their way into Europe and slap this cold air up against the north face of the Alps, yet more early season snow will fall and it could be quite the fall too!

Here’s Thursday! Note the extent of the abnormal cold gets all the way down to the South of France and the Med Sea.

Growing Season Likely To End For Many Across Midwest, Ohio Valley Next Week, Snow Over Great Lakes?

Canada and the Central, Midwestern US will see a significant trough dive down early to mid next week and this looks on track to send an early frost and freeze deep into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley. Models also show snow too.

Here’s the ECMWF chart for next Tuesday!

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  1. perry says:

    Very interesting starting to get excited about what may be coming this winter. As you may have guest I am a bit of a snow not. I am heading up to aviemore at the end of the month fingers crossed may see some early snow

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