Get Ready Newfoundland.. Leslie Is Speeding Your Way, Could Pack Quite A Punch Tonight Into Tuesday!

Written by on September 10, 2012 in North and South America with 0 Comments

Courtesy of NOAA

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to push off to the NNW at 17 mph with Newfoundland in her sights for an early Tuesday morning landfall. Given her presentation on satellite imagery and the fact that there is warmth surging north on the backside and cool, dry air feeding in from off North America, Leslie could well be already encountering a transition into extra-tropical, meaning she is loosing some tropical chararcteristics. Despite the warm waters beneath, there is a rather active front just to her west which is not only excellerating the system north and blowing strong shear across the system, pushing all the deepest convection off to the east of the core but a lot of dry, cooler air is also feeding in.

Despite this storm likely not reaching Atlantic Canada as a hurricane, the convergence between tropical and baroclinic can cause big problems. These transitionary systems can become menaces, causing big wind and rain and with a lot of rain already fallen and flooded Nova Scotia and PEI, this could cause more problems.

Courtesy of AccuWeather

The above AccuWeather graphic shows the situation well with the huge autumn air mass over eastern North America, the front which marks the leading edge and the vast amount of deep tropical moisture slamming against this wall. This cause cause significant flooding to Newfoundland but the one good thing about this situation is, is that the system is going to continue speeding up as it crosses eastern Nflnd early to mid tomorrow morning.

Below shows the expected rainfall amounts according to The Weather Network. These rains will only worsen the flooding situation already established over Nova Scotia and PEI.

As for winds, this storm should strike as a strong tropical storm. It;s unlikely to become a Cat 1 storm given current circumstances mentioned above. But the baroclinic energy drawn in and mixing with the tropical characteristics combined with above normal water temps could present quite the wind storm with widespread gales and heavy seas a given. Winds are likely to gust to hurricane-force on exposed south and east facing coasts and it wouldn’t surprise me to hear of one or two reports of 90 mph winds over the Avalon and on Cape Race.

Courtesy of The Weather Network


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