ECMWF Sends Cold Shot Into Great Lakes, Midwest By Sept 18th Ending Growing Season!

Written by on September 9, 2012 in North and South America, United States of America with 0 Comments

 

Photo by Mark Vogan

The trough which brought frost and 32F readings to parts of North Dakota this morning and a few days of refreshing 60s and 70s across the Ohio Valley gets replaced by a ridge early this week and so the all too familiar heat and humidity returns to the east.

Pretty much all of the US will be back in normal or above normal by mid week and this should continue for the next 5-7 days. However by day 8 on, we have a change looming to the north.

The ECMWF shows cold air building over northern Canada days and begins to bleed south via a deepening trough. This trough looks to drop into the Great Lakes and Midwest by September 18-19 with the 0C line at 850mb covering the Great Lakes and gets down to near Chicago. Even the 5-10C line gets to the Kentucky-Tennessee line which means an early frost and perhaps freeze is possible all the way to Arkansas, Tennessee and the Piedmont of North Carolina which could ultimately bring an early end to growing season from this point on north with lows widely ranging from the mid 20s in the north to mid-30s in the south.

Take a look at this 500mb chart for Sept 20 off the ECMWF, that’s a rather deep and cold looking trough dropping out of Canada. This certainly could support some snow showers around the Great Lakes and highs struggling to get out of the 40s with wind chills near freezing.

Consequently, a pretty decent ridge builds north over the Intermountain West and so record warmth is possible here while record cold high’s and lows should be set further east.

Here’s the 850 temps for Sept 19. Brrrr!

ECMWF 850mb temperatures (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

Just to confirm that it’s not just the ECMWF, Here’s what the SPC has out for days 8-14. Now that’s a rather cold look if you ask me.

Courtesy of SPC

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