Last ‘Very Warm Days’ For SE England This Weekend, Staying Gloomy Up North! Taste Of Autumn Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on September 7, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

[warning] LONDON & SE FORECAST: Temperatures rise near 27C today, 28 or 29C Saturday, Sunday, Significant cooldown arrives next week! [/warning]

Unfortunately for Scotland and Northern Ireland it looks to be somewhat of a dissapointing weekend with lower heights supporting cloud, showers and a west breeze which will make for a very contrasting weather map compared to further south.

A few days ago I said that this will likely be the last of the very warm days for another year. The reason of course is that we’re pushing through September, a month which can host the first frost and nights become noticably longer and cooler. Though high’s can still support glorious warm, sunny days well into October, but with longer hours of darkness, nights tend to loose heat more and upper level heights weaken considerably, so there’s restriction on how much surface heating can be generated during the day. With each passing low, those northerly winds become colder and the frost risk at night increases.

Highs Saturday, Sunday, in the north rise to between 16-18C under clear, showers, 18-21C in the sun, for the Midlands down to Southeast England, it will be like a summers weekend with highs of 22C in Manchester, 25C in Birmingham, 28C in London with a chance of 29C over Suffolk, either Saturday or Sunday but more likely Sunday as the trough begins to drop from Iceland where btw it’s going to snow there.

Cold shot next week could bring coolest temperatures for many since May, frosty nights possible

will be noticeable all the way to the balmy Southeast once this weekend’s ridge gives way to a trough. This trough could present one or two cool days all the way down to northern France. Highs in Scotland may struggle to reach 11 or 12C and if we manage to get a night of clear skies and light winds, with cold 850s like you can see below, then lows down to or below freezing for the first time since May is very possible but more likely outside of towns and cities but even here, there could be a risk of light frost and 1-2C lows. That could be all the way down to south-central England.

I think a cold northwest wind could be one of the most notworthy aspects to next weeks autumnal change.

Does the autumn blast last?

The answer is NO, it won’t with a return to more of a westerly flow by Thursday, Friday but for the northern half of Britain, it’s likely to stay cooler with highs of 14-16C in the Central Belt, perhaps only 11-13C in the far north and Northern Isles but the further south you go, the milder those westerlies become and down towards the south of England, daytime highs are likely to bump back up to 17-20C. Looking out the next 7 days, following those cool 2-3 days with a NW flow, heights rise but it’s likely to be blustery from off the Atlantic with sun and showers as the rule.

The next 10-20 days remains sunsettled and strongly driven by the Atlantic. This means a rollercoaster pattern in temperature with warm surges ahead of lows with significant drops in temperature once these systems push east and a cold, northwest flow kicks in on the backside.

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