Leslie Is Barely Moving, Lots of Uncertainty With Track, ECMWF Has Cat 3 Near Bermuda Saturday!

Written by on September 4, 2012 in Tropical with 0 Comments

Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather.com

There is still some shear and dry air currently affecting this storm and yes, it’s the same olf story of the deepest area of convection is displaced to the south and east of the centre. I have no change with Leslie and right now, due to the fact it’s barely moving at only 3 mph, defining a future track would be like playing the lottery. Yes, the pattern to Leslie’s north is very important down the road but right now, it’s very uncertain as to what will ultimately steer this storm because it’s really only once this thing intensifies and when it will do so, with timing of the pattern to it’s north that we can really see where this will go. If it remained in this no mans land, in between all steering flows, then the pattern and steering flow to the north will naturally change with the general west to east flow.

Right now, what is a little more clearer is that there’s good overall consenses with the models that intensify this storm into a hurricane with a general movement north towards Bermuda. It will continue to be slow moving over the next 72 hours but by this weekend as it begins to intensify, it should start to feel some upper winds which should begin to excellerate it’s forward motion somewhat.

ECMWF Bombs Out Leslie By Saturday Awefully Close To Bermuda!

Check out this latest chart from the ECMWF for this Saturday, it shows a major hurricane Leslie very close to Bermuda, this is a worrying look but with current situation, there is so much uncertainty.

Then take a look at where this model has Leslie by next Tuesday, very close to Cape Cod as a strong Cat 2, maybe even weak Cat 3. Even more worrying.

By this weekend, a trough establishes itself over the central and eastern US and with the timing of intensification, right now I am going with this trough more keeping it off the US coast but it may be pretty close as this trough may to do of two things, 1) pull it in and therefore Leslie may threaten New England or it will shield the coast from Leslie and therefore Nova Scotia and or Newfoundland would be under the gun. I continue to think that Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are at greatest risk from Leslie right now. The problem is, check out these SST anomalies.

not good!

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