Over the next 24-36 hours we’re are going to see the little blip in the road I alluded to a few days ago in the post which stated the South of England should be mostly dry, sunny and warm for the next 10 days. After tomorrow I could see mostly sunny skies, no rain and above normal temps through at least next Monday from Birmingham to London and this could be the best sustained spell of weather in over 10 weeks here. Interesting how takes till autumn for this to come, right?.
The Icelandic low, which battered Newfoundland on Saturday, bombs just east of Iceland tomorrow with a central pressure falling to 965mb. This can be troublesome when you’ve got a 1028 ridge over the Azores. Pressure naturally tightens and so winds will blow strongest the further north you go over the UK from the west (See epxert discussion on set-up!). Expect widespread 30-40 mph gusts over the north of Northern Ireland and Scotland tonight and tomorrow with worst winds NORTH of the mainland, thankfully. I’m expecting 70-80 mph gusts between the north coast of Scotland and the Faroes with the north of Lewis and western areas of Orkney and Shetland at risk from 70 mph, damaging gusts. Could also see 30-40 foot sea across these waters too so a nasty situation for shipping though their certainly use to bad weather in this part of the world!
GFS pressure/precip chart for Tuesday (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)
By Wednesday, note the low gradually weakens as it takes aim at Norway bringing strong winds and a band of heavy rain to them. As this low departs, so the big, sprawlling ridge builds heights back over the UK, so sun returns to much of the UK except northern areas but here too, we may be lucky.
GFS pressure/precip chart for late Tuesday (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)
By Friday, a front will spread rain across the Highlands of Scotland, perhaps extending into the Lowlands and S Uplands but further south, it’s mostly sunny skies with plenty of warmth to be had.
Once we get into Saturday, both surface and upper level ridging should allow near UK-wide sunshine and warmth with temperatures pushing the 21-24C mark in Scotland, 22-26C in the South with perhaps a 27C over the Southeast or East Anglia.
GFS pressure/precip chart for late Friday (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)
Cut Off Low In Med Brings T-Storms, Drenching Rains & Strong Winds, Looks Like A Mini Hurricane
I recall a low similar to this around this time last year which formed in the same way this thing did a day or so ago. It seems every year or certainly every so often around this late stage in summer or early autumn, as the jet dips south into the Med where it develops a low, it then cuts off and the jet returns north. These features are never really tropical but can develop some tropical characteristics. with perhaps even an attempt at trying to form a warm core as it feeds off the warm Med waters. It does produce banding features similar to tropical storms and can cause convection to blow up around the circulation but a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) doesn’t form and it does remain open to outside influences. If waters were warmer, then these may have a chance at becoming truely tropical but upper level winds and those cooler waters never support this.
So what can we expect over the next 36 hours. Pressure within the centre drops to 1005 or slightly below that. Thunderstorms are blowing up and will do, especially under the heating of the day. Strong winds, drenching rain and a dissapointment in some wet, windy weather is the main result. May take some fishing boats into port around Sardinia, Sicily and the coasts of Tunisia to the south, Italy to the north.
GFS precip/pressure chart for tomorrow over Central Med Sea (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)
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