Leslie Should Intensify, Likely Get Picked Up By W. Atlantic Trough But ECMWF Has It Near NE Coast Late Next Week!

Written by on August 31, 2012 in Tropical with 0 Comments

Courtesy of ECMWF

The timing of a storm intensifying into a fully fledged hurricane can mean the difference between a hit on the US or it remaining a fish storm with a recurve over the western or even central Atlantic depending on positioning and weaknesses within the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

As with Isaac, I believed this thing would remain weak enough to miss the connection with a trough digging into the Southeastern US and so it did. However, what many in the meteorological community didn’t expect was for it to head as far west as it did. That had a lot to do with it’s weak intensity for longer than expected but it’s size meant it took so much more time to bundle and consolidate all that energy also. Unfortunately it did intensify and tighten just at the point it was coming ashore in Louisiana.

Right now, I believe Leslie will grow quickly into a hurricane BEFORE reaching the Lesser Antilles and with a dip in the jet over the western Atlantic with strongest heights further back towards the Azores, Leslie should recurve, deeming a non-hit to the East Coast of the US. However, it’s all in the timing of this system strengthening and reaching the upper steering winds. If it were to remain somewhat weaker, track perhaps through or WNW just north of the Lesser Antilles and recurve later, then it would be in the best interest for East Coast, particularly the Northeast US to watch this carefully. I think Bermuda may want to watch this one.

When looking at the ECMWF, i must say I don’t like what I see. it goes for the further west option and takes it as a strong hurricane, perhaps Cat 3 far enough west and then due north up into Cape Cod late next week! Too far out but certainly a system worth watching.

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