Isaac Will Rain Itself Out Over Ohio Valley In Coming Days, Cooldown Coming Next, Watching Leslie

Courtesy of NOAA

Over the next few days we should see Isaac begin to dissipate but it’s been a long ride with this system dumping 10-20 inches of rain over LA, MS, AL and this is extending northwards into the areas which need the rain badly. The next 2-3 days will see some decent rains push into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and with this spin still comes a severe threat with tornadoes likely as well as flooding. As much as 6-10 inches of rain is possible locally across southern Illinois, Indiana and eventually Ohio also as the remnants turn and head for the Mid-Atlantic region by Labor Day.

Well into next week and a new trough will drop into the Northern Plains and this shall cut the abnormal warmth currently baking the central and northern Plains.

Here’s the upper chart for next Wednesday, notice it showing the trough and poush of cooler air working down from central Canada.

Latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Leslie and possible US threat

What’s interesting is that with this setup with a new trough diving into the heart of the country, this not only kicks out what’s left of Isaac and the heat back southwards where it belongs but if you see on the map above, Leslie can be seen working north, northwest in the direction of Bermuda.

Keep in mind that most models had Isaac going up the East Coast and with time, these charts trended further and further west.

Given the general model consenses for next week having a fairly weak western Mid-Atlantic high and the fact that Leslie’s expected to intensify into a hurricane within the next 48 to 72 hours, one would think this storm will remain a fish storm or a threat to Bermuda. The ECMWF tonight shows the system remaining off the US coast while this morning it had it very near clipping Cape Cod late next week.

Here’s what I put up this morning..

This is what the latest run says for the same day next week (below). Notice the eastward shift. While I was unconvinced that Isaac was heading up the East Coast simply because I thought with it’s slow movement and the fact it would remain weak, I didn’t see it connecting with the Southeast trough.

This time around, while I’m not ruling out an East Coast threat to end next week, I see more on the table this time around which would allow a turn early enough to keep Leslie offshore.

Ultimately, I believe a lot will have to do with the timing and position of the trough settling into the central US next week, whether there’s a strong enough Bermuda high to support that more westward track from Leslie and ultimately, when and how strong does Leslie become. Timing of intensification will play a vital role because remember the weaker a systemr remains, the further west it can go. Take it too far west and it may take that turn north too late . Even if there’s a threat to the US, that’s a good 10 days away from now and A LOT will change.

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