Courtesy of NOAA
After a few hours sleep I’m back up and was half expecting to see a hurricane declared and a healthier looking storm, however, I am seeing little difference from when turning this computer off. The only difference to me is that it’s closer to the Gulf Coast and the dry air is shaving off convection on the north side of the circulation rather than east side.
Certainly if this trend continues then the dry air will have stopped a potential devastating blow on the Gulf Coast. Time is running out for this system getting going.
All Big Storms Which Have Struck The Gulf Coast Weakened At Landfall, Does Isaac Reverse The Trend?
When looking at Katrina, Rita, Ivan etc etc, they where all much more powerful systems in the central Gulf of Mexico which weakened DOWN to a 3 before landfall, whereas barely 200 miles off the LA coast, Isaac isn’t even a hurricane yet. The question is does history hold true and we see some brief ramp up to a weak 80 mph storm then weaken as it comes ashore or do we see intensification right up to landfall like we saw wqith Charley and Humberto.
With both causes of Humberto and particularly Charley, waters and high heat content was present right up against the coast whereas from what I can see, that is not the case right up to the Louisiana, Mississippi coastline.
If Isaac is going to get stronger and become a real threat to the Gulf, except for it’s rain, flood and surge threat then it better start shaking off this dry air because up until now, that is what’s been stopping this thing for becoming a dangerous beast.
In saying all that, this storm is large and will become a hurricane and even at a Cat 1 intensity at this size and coming in where it is, could still mean a multi-billion dollar hit to New Orleans and the coast. Flooding and surge flooding could be the biggest factor in all this.
We saw what happened with Ike, a 90-100 mph storm, ‘only’ a Cat 2 and it literally wiped the Bolivar Peninsula off the map with it’s surge. Another thing to remember is that although New Orleans may be safer with their new levee system, those pumps are going to be working hard from tonight through Friday morning to keep the city from flooding simply from the 10-15 inches of rain which will fall as Isaac very near stalls out.
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Courtesy of TWC
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