1pm ET ISAAC UPDATE: NHC Track Is Near Identical To MVW’s, Worrying Days For New Orleans, Mobile, AL (Includes Video!)

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

Florida Keys: Don’t be caught out my last minute rapid intensification!

If you looked at my forecast track issued late last night (below) and then have a look at the new NHC track issued this morning (above), their near identical. This track which takes Isaac through the very deep warm waters of the Florida Straits is concerning despite the fact that Isaac is still disorganised and appears to be entraining some dry air from the southwest. All it takes is for the atmosphere to become a little more conducive and with all the energy of the system and high octane fuel beneath, this thing could ramp up rapidly as it crosses the Keys tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if another Charley or Katrina in SE Florida occured where there was sharp or rapid intensification at the last minute.

The most likely option is that this storm slowly gets it’s act together and it’s perhaps a minimal hurricane with 75 mph as it crosses the Keys but I want to leave that option on the table considering the amount of available heat in those waters and. We’ve seen this before. The weather will continue to go down hill over the Keys and South Florida as dusk nears. Small tornadoes may spin up as bands sweep northwards from Isaac’s centre. That’s why there’s a watch in place for South Florida including the Keys through 5pm.

Heavy downpours and gust 50-60 mph winds could impact a large area all the way to north to Melbourne as those bands sweep in.

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

Concerns Grow From New Orleans to Appalachicola, Start plans now, not later!

Unfortunately the threat doesn’t end with South Florida and the Keys but the bigger concern may be the Gulf Coast.

The confirmation of the NHC track puts high risk of a landfalling hurricane Wednesday between New Orleans and Appalachicola. A slightly more westward track within that cone means the potential is there for an even stronger hurricane than if it tracked more to the right side of the cone. The reason being is that the loop current and deepest of warm water lies within the central part of the Gulf and this would be tapped with a more westward tracking storm. We saw this happen as Katrina entered the central Gulf of Mexico.

However, even if Isaac doesn’t head towards the central Gulf and follows more of an Ivan-like path towards Mobile Bay, that is by no means lower risk. Isaac is a system which is currently disorganised but everything is there and set to light up. Draw in all this energy which covers a vast area, tightening it up and you’ve got one mature and potentially very dangerous storm. Draw that storm over high levels of heat content and you have a dangerous situation. A storm cutting NW from the Keys to Mobile Bay I believe could still support a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with a weakening to category 3 as it plowed onshore. That is what happened with Ivan and we all know how bad of a storm Ivan was.

Whether it goes west or east of this track, a major hurricane is very much on the table and a serious hit on the Gulf Coast looks highly likely now. That means it’s time NOW to get prepared. Dig out and dust down your hurricane pland and start getting organised.

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