Frequently Showery From Scotland to Scandinavia, Warmer, Drier For Much of Europe to End August

Written by on August 21, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan

While the warmth isn’t over for Western Europe, the hottest days likely are. It’s going to be tough to match the 32.4C we saw at Cavendish in East Anglia on Saturday and the upper 30sC we saw stretch across France with low 40s in the south and down over Spain. Those days of double digits above normal are done this year for the UK and northern France but as for Spain and southern France, Italy up into Gremany and the heart of the continent, well this heat may linger on into September.

I’m not particularly excited about what I’m seeing from us here in the UK although it’s always going to be drier, brighter and warmer. The ridge should remain strong enough over the near continent to keep lows and their showers north of London for the most part. As for Scotland, frequent pulses of energy to come and go, come and go, come and go..

A very mixed bag

The complicating aspect is that the next 7-10 days doesn’t seem to have the trough centred over the UK but more to the west or southwest, this means warm air may come and go with each passing system. We’re likely to see bursts of warmth and humidity in between cooler, more refreshing flows with frequent Atlantic fronts sweeping in across the north bringing enhanced showers and with a westerly flow, that means normal or below normal temperatures.

Here is what the GFS has for temperature departure across Europe in the next 7 days.

Map courtesy of WeatherBELL Models

Notice the model for the next 7 days combined has below normal in the southern UK and northern France, this shows the trough and with lots of well above normal readings covering most of Spain, southern France and across the majority of central Europe, it clearly keeps above normal heights dominating the continent. It also shows above normal over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Rains stick mainly to northern UK & Scandinavia except the Alps

As for precipitation, here’s a GFS forecast precip forecast for the next 5 days. Notice the higher rainfall amounts across Scotland on into Scandinavia. This shows Atlantic low pressure influence over top of the ridge. Notice southern England pretty dry thanks to stronger heights with systems passing to the north. The next decent low will spread across the UK this weekend bringing more rain and potentially blustery winds too.

Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models

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