Tropical Storm Gordon To Weaken By Chillier Waters, Strong Shear En-Route To Azores But May Bring Wind, Rain

Written by on August 17, 2012 in Rest of Europe, Tropical with 0 Comments

Believe it or not but Tropical systems practically every late summer will take that long recurve route all the way around the North Atlantic Basin perhaps having struck the US East Coast or simply remained a fish storm between the US and Bermuda, a common tropical cyclone track. They can eventually they sweep across Western Europe having taken a trip around the western edge of the Mid-Atlantic ridge. Usually by the time they reach the cold North Atlantic waters, often as early as just a few hundred miles off Newfoundland en-route to the UK, Norway or perhaps even Iberia they quickly interact with hostile westerlies forcing the lose of a warm core turning them into extra-tropical systems which develop fronts and become driven by baroclinicity.

However, they’ve been known to have bigger impact to the UK than US, dispite perhaps striking North America as an actual fully tropical system. Take Ex-Hurricane Katia which hit Scotland in 2010. A system which had pressure into the 980s and wind gusts commonly in the 60-80 mph range.

Gordon likely to bring some wind and rain to Azores but that’s about it

As for Gordon. Models track this east between the northern edge of the Mid-Atlantic ridge and the strong westerlies where there is a split jet to the west of Europe this weekend. Personally This system is interesting as it may be will be no more than a slight wind and rain maker and the majority of the storm core is fall apart significantly by the time it reaches the Azores. However, stranger things have happened and he may survive and perhaps become one of those freakish systems which intensifies into a Cat 2 hurricane and strikes the Azores as a weak Cat 1 or strong storm. Either way, the Azores have no need to worry but once it gets closer to the islands, feels those stronger upper winds and those chillier waters beneath, this system will struggle. The baroclinic properties may however keep Gordon stronger for longer. Time will tell but it’s staying WELL SOUTH of the UK that’s for sure.

Check out these latest charts off the ECMWF. The model clearly shows Gordon weakening some but keeping it together as it sweeps just south of the islands during Monday.

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