High Latitude Blocking Looks To Keep USA & Great Britain Cool, Unsettled Through Remainder of August

Chart courtesy of Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Thought it would be worthwhile taking a quick look at the 8-14 day outlook courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center. While folks in the US will be asking, Is this coming cool a sign of things to come, folks here in the UK are likely asking, is this warmth and intensifying warmth this weekend also a sign of things to come.

Certainly when looking at the above chart, the answer for the US is likely, yes! While for us here in the UK, No.

It’s amazing the hype not only the media but so-called forecasters stir up in this country, when the weather takes a short-lived flip.. All of a sudden.. this and that is going to happen, often contradicting what was said days or a week ago. This of course often leads us into a false sense of security. The thinking this weekend will be that this is us heading for a hot, dry end to August but the charts and NAO ensemble forecast don’t match that idea. In fact one could argue that we take a step back from what has turned out to be a warm and unsettled pattern which kicked in the week leading up to the Olympics rather than cool and unsettled before.

If we take a look at the above chart it clearly shows the positives over top of the negatives in the upper height field. A mean trough sets up over the heart of North America while another sets up over the east Atlantic and stretches into the western Europe mainland. The high latitude blocking ties nicely with a more negative NAO shaping up during the later of the month.

August looks to be evolving as forecasted back in mid-July

As stated way back during the mid point of July, I had forecasted and clearly outlined that we had a greater potential for warmer air getting involved with the UK pattern BUT the unsettled, el nino, -NAO pattern would likely persist. I highlighted that I believed the worst of the super wet pattern was over and that proved to be the case just like we got warmer but not more settled for a sustained period of time.

The next 7 days will be warm with a spell of slightly more settled compared to what we’re experiencing just now. But all indicatons suggest no end to the unsettled pattern and if the NAO does take another dive, rather than flirt with positive, then we’re likely entering a cooler, unsettled spell again rather than the more pleasant warm and unsettled.

Chart courtesy of Climate Prediction Center

The big flip which looks to hold through the rest of August is a likely byproduct of the nino entering region 1.2

We all knew the heat, blistering the US had to have had a sell by date and cool would return. Well it has, certainly for the heart of the hot zone this summer. It’s no the West’s turn to bake and blister but there is a reason for this change. Through following Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics, they alluded to the fact that with the nino core of warmest wetr now shifting west towards the Central Pacific, this would open the door to height falls over the Plains. This has occured and with the long range models, this cooler than normal regime looks to hold. I believe well into September!

Take a look at the below NAO ensemble forecast. Note the dip. Ties in well with the above chart for a return to cooler for Western Europe. This may allow some late August cool shots into the UK. Perhaps an early frost/freeze? Both the US and UK could see a fairly chilly end to August if this pans out. This blows the theory of a top 5 hot US summer out of the water that’s for sure.

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