5-10 Day Outlook: UK Approaches Warmest Temps of Summer This Weekend But Next Week & Beyond Stays UNSETTLED!

Written by on August 15, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

I guess the one good thing about this week’s weather is that it’s at least warm, giving us at least a feel of summer.

Since last weekend i’ve been closely monitoring the models which continuously show one heck of a hot weekend over Spain and France. So hot that all-time records may be challenged and many of those in the North of France was set during the torturous and devastating heat back in 2003. It will be interesting to see whether the models continue holding to this rare severity which has stunning 592 heights nearly as far north as Paris!

This unusually hot air mass gets very close to the Southeast of England, especially on Sunday. This kept the question in my head, just how warm could London and the Southeast get this weekend if this was to play out? (below)

Right now, it would appear the true blowtorch will remain on the other side of the channel but with a sufficient southwest flow, strong enough heights and combined with sunshine, the high should push 30C in London on Sunday afternoon which gets close to the year’s warmest so far which is 31.5C. If the real managed to reach London, mid-30s would be more likely but at the moment I’m not going with that one.

Temperatures should be pleasant all the way up through the UK this weekend with low 20s getting up as far north as Highland Scotland.

Not a bad looking start to next week

While we warm into the weekend,  and Monday and Tuesday looks to remain warmer than normal with high pressure overhead, unfortunately the next low appears to bring in rain from Wednesday onwards, maybe sooner! Like we’ve seen over the past 3 weeks, short lived 2-3 day warm spells will continue to come within this overall unsettled pattern and with the negative NAO looking to persistent if not intensify over the next 10-15 days, this suggests not only a continuation of pattern but a turn to cooler. There’s too much trough influence with blocking over Greenland and the arctic and so lows will send fronts across the UK keeping the sunshine and showers going.

The below surface charts off the GFS (courtesy of WeatherOnline) for early next week shows any unsettled weather more to the north, staying drier and warmer further south.

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