ECMWF Has 986mb Low Crossing Scotland A Week Today Bringing Heavy Rain, Gales

Written by on August 9, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

ECMWF chart interpreted by WeatherBELL Models (Courtesy of ECMWF & WeatherBELL Analytics)

While we enjoy summer-like conditions over the next 3-5 days UK-wide, we all know that given the type of summer we’ve had, this ain’t gonna last. I do believe that with the recent ‘more settled’ pattern we’ve had since the warm week leading up to the Olympics, this reflects well with the return to a more neutral NAO compared to the strong and stubborn negative we’ve seen for such a long period of time this summer.

An even warmer and more settled spell is possible through the second half of August if we can muster up a positive NAO as a pose to just a neutral phase but certainly the relaxation in the pattern was forecasted way back in July and so I am pleased to see this happen.

All that being said, the above and below charts courtesy of WeatherBELL Models show the very low which will help pump the ridge and warmth over the UK over the next several days, eventually cross us later next week as a pretty deep sub-986mb low.

The next few days has this feature slowly drift our way and this will force the warmth from Spain and France north and should drift over us during Saturday into Sunday. This may bring a turulent Sunday with thunderstorms before drifting back west and meandering over the North Atlantic through the first part of next week.

By the mid part of next week, the ECMWF has this low bundling it’s energy and tracking northeast across the North of Scotland as a strong 986mb low. That would bring wind and heavy rain to much of the UK along with much cooler temperatures.

Time will tell.

ECMWF chart interpreted by WeatherBELL Models (Courtesy of ECMWF & WeatherBELL Analytics)

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