UK Warmth Cranks This Late Week, May Last Through Mid Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on August 8, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 2 Comments

Image courtesy of The London Standard

Days ago I made a statement which gave a 90F for London and 80F for Scotland and I am going to continue holding to that idea just now. As it stands, heights build to strongest levels Friday through Sunday but Sunday perhaps sees a front work in from the west which could bring some interesting weather (potential for thunderstorms). Then by early to mid next week, heights build and warmth once again looks to surge north up into the UK as the cut off low swings back west out over the North Atlantic.

The big question is, how close does that cut off low get to the SW UK Saturday, Sunday just as we see the hottest air lift from Spain up into France? The key is getting the front, associated with the low close enough to enhance S, SW winds which can lift the ‘hottest air of the season’ from France north across the channel and over the South of England. 90 is more likely in the South of England if these ingredients come together just nicely. Remember, 850 temps don’t have to be a certain level to support hotter surface conditions but if you’ve got a real hot air mass and a southwest wind blowing from that region, then all you really need is strong enough heights to support an already warm air mass in place, sunshine and by adding in that SW flow from a very warm source region and bingo, you really jack up those temps.

If you notice in the above chart for Saturday how the low does get closer to the UK pumping the ridge over the UK and this alone should boost temperatures towards 27-29C in the South perhaps extending up through the Midlands and 24-25C in Central Scotland the low stays back west and so the southwest heat pump isn’t particually prominant, so the hottest air over Spain and southern and central France can’t get that shove further north. I do agree that upper heights and 850 temps do not support 90 and it’s a matter of whether the southwest flow aligns correctly or not. That’s what I am hoping for. Highs should at least hit the mid-80s WITHOUT that all impirtant SW flow. mid 90s should get all the way to central France, low 90s for Paris.

Now if you look at the above chart for Sunday, you’ll notice the low creeper ever closer to the Southern UK and it’s this that could bring that all important south wind but it’s alignment is important. You’ll also notice that heights remain strong over Scotland and with a possible SW flow, it may be the NW Highlands which see highs push the warmest levels of 2012 so far. If this chart was to play out then I would be going for 82 to 84F at somewhere such as Kinlochewe with 75-77 in the main Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor with areas west of hills possibly eyeing 80.

Next week isn’t looking too shabby either with another chance at Scottish 80s, Southern England low 90s

If conditions didn’t come together as I expect and hope they do during this weekend then next week may present a second bite at the cherry as the current ECMWF run shows another push of heat early to mid next week and right now conditions may in fact be more conducive for that 90 between Bristol and London with always London having the better chaqnce thanks to the urban heat island.

An important aspect to consider is that the ground has had a chance to dry out somewhat from the recent months of rain and so this may help to a degree in allowing the air to more more effectively as comepared to the last warm spell which saw higher soil moisture content which leads to a lot of the sun’s energy going into evaporation rather than warming of the ground and lower atmosphere. Dry ground means less energy is used for evaporation and more into heating the ground/air.

Here’s a look at the ECMWF chart for early to mid next week. After a brief turn to unsettled weather, things look likely to turn more settled and warmer once again.

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  1. Jim says:

    Very well done Mark !! Nice read

    • Mark says:

      Cheers Jim… Appreciate your comments. It explains where I’m getting my 90 from. May not get there but I see where there’s potential. I love giving myself a challenge without getting into hypecasting.

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