Less Rain, More Warmth For UK/Ireland Over Next 10 Days? Is This A Transition Which Takes Us Into Autumn?

Written by on August 8, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Since the week leading up to the start of the Olympic Games, the overall pattern has been a somewhat drier and more settled one with the hot week running up to the Olympic opener marking the change and although there has been cool, dull and damp days since the week of mid to upper 80s in the South, there has been a marked increase in average temps and brighter skies with much less rainfall compared to the April through first 20 days of July period.

Over the next 10 days we will see day after day of temperatures throughout the UK above average and there is even the chance at seeing the warmest temperatures of the entire summer within this next 10 day period.

The question is, is this the signs of a bigger change in the pattern. A transition from less wet to actually a bias ‘SETTLED, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED PATTERN’ for the end game to this summer? I’ve drummed home this point for weeks now that I believed the worst was over when the last blast of warmth arrived and so far, that appears to have held true. Yes, the unsettled pattern has remained but warmer air has been lifting periodically north and that has not occurred so far this summer.

The overall setup has similarities to 2009 with the coming on of the El Nino and a mid-summer tanking of the NAO during July. Interestingly that year saw a return to more positive before the big dip which persisted through the majority of the 2009-10 winter. The models for some time have hinted at more of a neutral NAO and over the past 10 days that has been the case. That may be what has brought us out of the super wet pattern and allowed warmer air to get into our unsettled pattern. I believe we could see a push into more positive territory in the NAO during week 2 and 3 of August which may allow the ridge we’re about to see linger through next week and the general bias may be to warm and more settled for the remainder of this month.

The JAMSTEC model keeps the UK warm this autumn and so this general trend may be a sign of large-scale change over the North Atlantic and Europe with more western ridging and eastern troughiness from mid-August through October. If we continue a trend similar to Autumn 2009 then warmth which takes us through October with a spell of very wet conditions for a time in September, we would then return to very wet and warm in November.

I hope to have an autumn forecast in the next day or so.

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