Trend Swinging Towards Eastern Trough & Western Ridge, Very Wet For Southeast Next 5 Days

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

The gears of the summer pattern are changing as we progress deeper into August with more troughiness set to dig into the Lakes and East while the heat shifts to further west. The worst of the summer heat is done with the Plains and East despite more warmth coming and going. Although the hottest weather has likely occured Out West too, from now on I can see the core of heat centred over the Great Basin.

You can see from the below ECMWF chart for Friday how a significant trough drops into the Lakes with a decent storm driving a cold front east towards the coastal plain. This sets up a big rain potential from the Southeast to Northeast by the end of this week as a storm system over the Lakes swings a cold front into the east but before it arrives, warmth and humidity will surge northwards up the coastal plain thanks to a strong offshore Bermuda high so strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this week and into the weekend up the East Coast.

As for the Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley, temperatures will be cool for early August by late week/weekend as the trough draws chilly air down from Canada on the backside of a storm system with highs only in the 70s with perhaps some 60s in spots. Dry air, clear skies and light wind by night should allow night temperatures to fall into the 40s with some 30s in a few spots up over Minnesota and the UP of Michigan.

From the below QPF precip chart for the next 5 days you can see how much rainfall is expected given the deepening Lakes to eventaully East Coast trough while the heat continues across the West.


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