[error] HURRICANE ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO STRIKE NORTHERN BELIZE/MEXICAN YUCATAN TONIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLY 90 MPH WINDS, 4-8 INCHES (LOCALLY 12+) OF RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES [/error]
HURRICANE ERNESTO STATS
CATEGORY: 1
WIND: 80 MPH SUSTAINED
PRESSURE: 983MB
MOVEMENT: WNW 14 MPH
Finally, a waxing and waning Ernesto is now an 80 mph Category 1 Hurricane as it approaches northern Belize and the Mexican Yucatan. A landfall is expected sometime later tonight and could pack at near 90 mph winds with gusts near 105 mph and 4-8 inches of rain widely across the Mexican Yucatan, Belize, Honduras and Guatemala and later down the road, central mainland Mexico including vast Mexico City. There is large areas of mountainous terrain in this part of the world so many upslope areas may see well over a foot of rain over the next 12-24 hours from Ernesto as it comes ashore. The primary concern from this storm is coastal wind damage, modest storm surge but more so inland flooding and mudslides.
Dry air has been keeping Ernesto at bay and has been responsible for squashing convective bursts but as the storm nears the southern Yucatan, enough moist air mixed with those balmy western Caribbean waters has allowed the storm to become a hurricane and the concern now would be that as it’s outer bands start to feel the coast, perhaps tightening the storm, it could intensify the system up till landfall with continuing pressure falls and increasing winds. This is a possibility and pretty much the exact region where Dean in 2007 intensified to Cat 5 strength right up to landfall.
Below is a graphic produced by AccuWeather showing rain projections across the region set to get heaviest impacted by Ernesto over the next 24 hours.
MORE UPDATES TO COME, STAY TUNED!
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