Next Mini Warm Surge Coming Mid To Late Next Week? Fits August Forecast Nicely! (Includes Video!)

Written by on August 4, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The ECMWF is looking interesting from mid to late next week with potential for another mini warm surge. As it stands just now and with the current model run, mid to upper 80s for Southern England, mid-70s for Scotland is possible by the close of next week but I will be curious to see what the new model run shows to see if this return warm surge continues to hold. The major factor in this warmth returning will be where a new cut off low will go as it crosses the North Atlantic through next week. That is the key player as the model has it dropping southeastwards and as it does so, it forces ridging out ahead of it. It eventually gets to near the Southwest of Ireland and by this stage the ridge and warmth is back over the UK and it’s thanks to the movement and eventual position of that low.

Overall, this would fit nicely with my ideas shared all the way back in mid July when I said August should see an easing of the super wet pattern and we should see a continuation of an overall ‘unsettled pattern’ but the chance of more frequent return surges of warmth. The past 3-5 days has been warmer with low 20s dat after day in the South. We’ve seen a lot less rain and we may well see more warmth return by the end of next week!

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