Wet Weekend On Tap For All Of The UK, Uncertainy As To How Much (Includes Video!)

Written by on August 2, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Sat image from today (Courtesy of WeatherOnline)

Today was a much improved day up here across Scotland as compared to yesterday as the front pushed through. The beautiful low spinning to the west of Ireland has been deepening over the past 36 hours as all the energy flowing in aboard an unseasonably strong summer jet slams up against the big high over Europe. With nowhere for this energy to go, but into the low and with the low going nowhere, all that bundles, forcing the system to tighten and pressure to fall down towards 980mb. Luckily, the worst of the weather this thing is producing is well west of even Ireland never mind the UK, though it has brought strong coastal winds and heavy seas.

The big question for the upcoming weekend is how will that low impact the UK and most importantly, the Olympics.

Well what is more certain is that there is good agreement in the models that the low will push southeastward over the next 48 hours with pressures rising as the thermal gradient between warm and cold lowers and it enters an overall warmer environment and with less upper support. Of course that doesn’t mean it can’t dump big rains over Ireland and the UK and that is where the dissagreement comes in with the models.

While the GFS has less in the way of big time rains, the european is more bullish, painting a much wetter look through the weekend.

While I love the european and agree with it more often than not, more than the GFS, I have to sway more towards a more ‘increased shower risk’ as a pose to anything more substantial. I see an increase in rainfall and clustering of showers into more organised areas of rain but nothing more than that.

I shall monitor this situation closely and will update tomorrow.

 

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