Is The Atlantic Finally Reawakening After Busy Start To 2012 Season?

Written by on August 1, 2012 in Tropical with 0 Comments

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

Up until now, the tropical Atlantic has been dead, although waves have been travelling the usual west-east journey but they’ve been killed by choking Saharan dust and intense easterly trade winds. Two factors which are never good for tropical development.

In the past couple of days, there are TWO waves which have caught attention of the meteorological community and have been watched via computer model picking up on them since last week. The first wave has been advancing through the eastern Caribbean and bringing heavy rains to the Dominican Rep and Haiti but the environment is not particularly favourable. While we don’t want significant rains over the rain-capturing/enhancing high peaks of the Dom-Rep and Haiti, we do need rain across much of the Caribbean Islands as it has been very dry throughout the summer so far. Thank that dusty air which has crossed the entire Atlantic and largescale sinking beneath high pressure which has supressed the typical thunderstorm development.

You can see in the chart above where the front running wave is while the second and more worthwhile to watch system is further back, still well out into the Atlantic.

The second system, currently moving west at a steady rate is south of an area of increased upper winds and dry air, it’s current environment and if it continues DUE WEST and doesn’t drift northwest, SHOULD develop into a depression or storm in the days ahead, perhaps striking the Windward Islands by Friday as a storm.

All that being said, the overall environment looks to remain unsettled for development through this weekend and so even if it does develop, the current status by this weekend doesn’t look great for this system doing much in the Caribbean next week.

Map courtesy of The Weather Channel

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