Weekend Trough & Cut Off Low Presents Olympic Forecast Challenges Next Week (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 26, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The trough plunging into the UK behind tomorrow’s front is deep with thicknesses down to 546 over Scotland, sub 560 over London which supports very cold air aloft. An associated cut off low within the trough will keep an unsettled as well as chilly theme throughout this weekend with daytime temps holding at only 14-16C in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland while southern England/Wales is only 17-20C. Cloud cover and rain will keep those temps at unseasonably cold levels into Monday next week.

Interestingly the ECMWF for a few days now has had this low migrating north which would allow modestly warmer air back north into the southern UK so a recovery back to nearer 21C Tuesday looks possible, however cloud and rain would keep it cooler despite the apparent rise in heights. Cut off lows and their wake with lingering cloud and rain can make for difficult forecasting and this looks to be the case early next week.

By Tuesday into Wednesday the model has the low pushing enough north and west of the UK (an unusual movement) which could allow a more significant push of warmer air back into London and the South with temps perhaps rebounding back towards the MID-20s C.

By late next week, which is WAY OUT, the model has the cut off low rotating back down towards the UK, this would reintroduce a more unsettled theme again..

Below is the latest run of the ECMWF into next week!!

Stay tuned!

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