Soaking Night With Possible Flooding For Ireland, NI, Scotland, N England, Followed By Thundery Showers

Written by on July 17, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

GFS shows heavy rains push across Ireland, NI into western UK tonight! (Chart courtesy of MeteoGroup)

Jet stream finally lifts north this weekend!

It’s been a decent day for much of the United Kingdom with a mostly cloudy day in northern and central areas but slightly brighter in the south which allowed the temperatures to lift to around 22-23C. Tonight and through tomorrow we have another rather wet night to contend with across the Republic, Northern Ireland, central and southern Scotland down into the north of England but there is good news on the horizon.

The jet stream lifts north this weekend!

That means warmer air will be allowed to lift northeast from the Azores and according to current models, temperatures are turning substantially warmer with low 20s in southern/central Scotland, possibly mid to upper 20s from the Midlands south by Monday. As for northern Scotland and just how far north it remains is unclear, but a powerful low will deepen over the next 72 hours over the north Atlantic and will track east to the south of Iceland later Sunday. It’s cold front could bring a siognificant blast of wind and rain to the rather dry Highlands.

But back to tonight..

An inch of rain may fall widely over the northern Rep, southern NI, Scot, N Eng tonight

Tonight will see the heavy rains spread across Ireland and NI, eventually crossing the channel into the UK. A good 1 inch rain is likely for many in the highlighted areas with perhaps locally 2 inches over upslode areas is possible. Localised flooding is likely, causing poor driving conditions with standing water and surface spray. This rain will drift south down across the Midlands weakening as it does so during Wednesday. On the backside of the cold front, a rash of heavy, thundery showers will follow which could drop a fair amount of rain after the band band has exited so don’t assume your out of the woods once the heavy/persistent rains clear out.

The setup supports a northbound warm front which will draw warmer air north which will be met back to eastbound eastfront, this may fuel heavier rains over Cumbria up into the Southern Uplands during tomorrow morning.

Once the main batch of rains push away from Ireland, NI, Scotland, heavy showers will spread in on the rear of the cold front, so further heavy spells of thundery rain can be expected and these may also cause local flooding.

Sun & showers by Friday, turning warmer by Sunday & especially Monday but heavy rains hit northern Scotland!

By the time we get to Friday, a sunshine and showers regime will kick in with drier and more settled conditions working in building heights on Saturday into Sunday.

Courtesy of ECMWF

 

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