Is There Signs Of Change In Our Weather As Olympics Approach?

Written by on July 17, 2012 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

Millions across the world will increasingly be turning to weather forecasts for London as we enter the later part of July. We all know just how wet it’s been but with signs of warmer air building over the upcoming weekend and into early next week, can this provide us with a level of optimism that our weather may in fact be changing for the good as we approach the Olympics which start July 27?

While I would be lying if I said a heatwave was brewing but what I can tell you is this, I believe our super wet period may be easing finally and there may be hints in the medium range models of more ridging rather than troughiness favouring the UK within the final 10 days of this month. Lets face it, even if it wasn’t bright skies and 30C every day, a dry better is better than what we’ve seen.

Starting this week and into early next week, a ridge will build warmth in and although more troughiness quickly follows during the mid part of next week, there are signs of a return ridge by next weekend, this is a trend we all welcome and unfortunately, given the fluid nature of our weather at the best of times, it’s important to take these initial model runs with a pinch of salt.

Another issue I have is that way back, the ensembles had a return to positive in the NAO which I had hoped would bring a return to the warm, dry spell we enjoyed back at the end of May during the second half of June but the depth of negative likely helped the continuation within the doldrums. While I struggle to believe this, I want to point out that the current run has the NAO bouncing back into positive territory by the end of this month. This may be an added indicator of warmer, drier times ahead.

I do feel optimistic that 1) the pattern of the past several weeks can’t last forever and 2) the model runs may well be onto something with a much less active pattern shaping up for really for the second half of summer. While there WILL BE RAIN off and on over the next 30 days, I do think we’ll see a warmer and relatively more settled pattern with possibly the warmest temps of summer still ahead of us.

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