Warm Surge Coming For England/Wales But Big Rains Sweep Across UK Wednesday Night! (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 14, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

My view looking across to Dunnet Head from Thurso on the Caithness coast on Fri 13 July, 2012

Well I hope your all having a great weekend so far and your weather hasn’t been too bad. I’ve encountered another very pleasant day on my travels and certainly felt a good deal warmer today compared with yesterday. Though it was a lovely day where I was up in Thurso on the north coast, the north wind blowing straight off the Pentland Firth was cold on Friday.

It’s been an interesting past 24 hours for me from a geographical point of view. As most of you will know, I drive a truck down from Glasgow deliver across Dumfries and Galloway. Yesterday, on my day off I decided to take a trip in my car the 300 miles from Lennoxtown to Thurso where I enjoyed a lovely lunch and stroll around in the chilly summer sun. While standing on sea front I could look over to the steep cliff face of Dunnet Head which pokes out into the Pentland Firth, this is the northernmost point in Scotland and the UK mainland, today, as per every Saturday and every second day of the week, I drove from Dumfries, along the A75 to Stranraer. In the process, as you near Stranraer which is in the southwest corner of Scotland (complete opposite end to Thurso), I could see the Mull of Galloway and the lighthouse, this like Dunnet Head, though on a longer peninsula pokes out into an area where the North Channal meets the Solway Firth, it’s here where the southernmost point on the Mull of Galloway marks the southernmost point in Scotland. It was cool to see the northernmost point yesterday and southernmost point this morning. I’ve covered around 900 miles in a little over 24 hours and around 2,000 miles in the past 6 days. I usually cover 1,300 miles every 5 working days. Thankfully I love driving both in my job and outwith.

Sorry to ramble on.. Now the weather!

1-2 Warm surges possible in the last 10 days of the month

We’ve certainly got an interesting next 7 days ahead and beyond. The models are hinting at a possible increase in warm surges with unsettled weather in between during the later 10 days of this month. Long and short, we continue the very wet and unsettled theme into August but there is potential for at least one if not two warm surges AFTER the warm surge early next week. This would certainly be a trend we want to see continue.

The issue ive got right now is that it looks as though the warmth of Tuesday-Wednesday has rain across spreading west to east from the Midlands to South Coast at the time the warmth spreads up from the southwest and so nailing how bright it will be as well as warm could prove tough.

ECMWF 500mb chart courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Timing of the cold front will reselt in how warm it gets Wednesday afternoon

With the last warm surge back early last week, it was just ahead of the next cold front’s arrival where we saw the greatest opush of heat and I believe, while Tuesday should warm into the low and mid-20s, I think if the front approaches, close enough to the west for an excelleration of warmth to push up but hold back enough for the afternoon heating to kick in, we could potentially see a 26 to 28C over London Wednesday afternoon.. Problem is, if the front arrives late morning and afternoon spreading rain or evening clouds in, highs will only warm to the low 20s at best.

Right now, I am going for low to mid-20s from the interior south to south midlands, possibly as far north as Manchester on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon but I’m going for a 30 to 40% chance of rain and or thunderstorms. The Southeast could see 26-28C Wednesday afternoon IF the approaching front hangs back to the west long enough, allowing the sun and excellerating southwest wind to warm air to midsummer levels over London and Kent.

On Wednesday we look to see increasingly wet weather pushing into Scotland on the northern side of the ridge. This boundary could support very heavy, flooding rains over much of Scotland as well as Ireland, Northern Ireland.

ECMWF surface chart courtesy of AccuWeather Pro

Flooding 1-3 Inch Rains Possible from north to south later Wednesday into Thursday

It appears that these heavy rains will spread south through Wednesday afternoon and evening and we could see strong t-storms developing as one goes south into the increasingly warmer air. The overnight hours into Thursday looks to be a soaker for much of the UK with 1-3 inches possible in western, upslopes stretching from the Northwest Highlands down through the Galloway Hills, Cumbrian Fells, Snowdonia, west face of Pennines into the Southwest of England.

Further flooding looks inevitable with all the saturated ground.

ECMWF surface/precip forecast (courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

The model paints a very wet picture from late Wednesday all the way through Friday as the bulk of the rains spread north to south and while flooding is a concern in the south, it’s later Thursday into Friday which i raises cause for concern as the haviest rains push south into the wettest areas of the UK. This is obviously a long way and and as I frequently do, I urge a level of caution upon the accurcay of the finer details of this forecast. Things will change and hopefully this wetter weather won’t be a bad as it appears right now.

ECMWF surface/precip forecast (courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

ECMWF surface/precip forecast (courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

As I glance out beyond next week and into the final 7-10 days of July, it does look more promising that we have a few stikes of ridging pushing up into the UK and Ireland and this may provide us with 2-3 days of warmth, maybe sunshine in between further wet and cooler weather. I am confident that the remainder of this month will stay unsettled for the large part and there is a lot more rain to come which may make July the second month in a row as record wettest.

The NAO will likely stay negative through the remainder of July and that means there’s no sign of sustained warmth and more importantly, sunshine in the near term. I honestly could see the unsettled theme holding through the first full week of August, beyond that, well it’s anyones guess.

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