It’s A Chilly Week By July Standards For NW Europe, Brief Warm Surge Tues-Wed Next Week? (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 9, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan

We have seen yet more flooding again today and tonight the amber warnings from the met office continue to stand with more heavy rains for parts of the south and north of Britain.

We have from a meteorological point of view an interesting week of weather as some darn cold air is flowing southeastbound and will cover the UK by Wednesday all thanks to our weekend low migrating east and opening the door to the north. A low pushing down on the northwest flow will keep those heavy and quite widespread rains going Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday. I hold to the idea that we may see temperatures struggling to get above 11 or 12C in Glasgow tomorrow if not Wednesday or Thursday, especially if skies remain cloudy and wet. That northwest breeze will also add to the nip.

At some point this week, highs will have a hard time reaching 14C in Manchester and 16C in London, very cool given the average is around 22/23C.

Snow above 3,800ft?

ECMWF forecasted 850mb temps (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

With the 0C line at 850mb which is the temperature at 5,000ft above sea level, that is some mighty cold air for mid-July and would likely support snow above 3,800ft and above from Tuesday or Wednesday into Thursday over the tops of the Grampians and Cairngorms.

I also continue to hold onto the idea that if we manage to get some clearing skies at night and light winds, we could see lows widely bottom out at between 5-8C later this week, helped by the cold air aloft which can sink to the surface at night and help draw any daytime warmth back up into space.

The wet and at times blustery weather looks to continue through the next 5+ days with unsettled conditions lasting through the upcoming weekend. Powerful high pressure with heights upwards of 592dc over the heart of the Med basin, we’re likely to see some blistering heat from Spain all the way to Israel with the epicentre of the heat focused over Italy.

Warming back up Monday and Tuesday next week?

This ECMWF 500mb forecast for early next week shows the ridge building warmth back into the UK (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

The model could be shoping some decent warmth working in on the backside of this week’s trough. The trough will slide east and so a building ridge over the Atlantic would spread possibly 2-3 days of sunnier and MUCH warmer weather with highs back to the mid and upper 20s across England, low to mid-20s for central Scotland.

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