Flash Flooding For Low Countries & Germany, Tornadic Storms For Baltics, UK Shivers This Week! (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 8, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

[error] THERE IS HIGH RISK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM CENTRAL FRANCE TO EASTERN SCANDINAVIA WITH TORNADIC STORMS POSSIBLE OVER BALTICS [/error]

 

Image courtesy of Wikipedia

Now that the low is pushing into southern Scandinavia and the front is drapped from southern France all the way to the Baltics states, expect big rains which will cause flooding, even flash flooding over the next 48 hours with a lot of energy working east into the wall of heat and humidity which covers the majority of mainland Europe. The area which extends from north Germany/Poland up through the Baltic nations, this region where airmasses and winds converge may be the zone to watch for possible tornadic thunderstorm development over parts of Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Belarus.There’s a heightened risk of flooding which covers a region from the Baltic Sea coast of Germany down through the Netherlands, Belgium and France right where the low and it’s cold front slams the hot air. There’s tremendous upper energy and a powerful jet roaring over top to support enhanced upward motion.

Through the first part of this week, the trough will broaden in coverage and push much cooler and more unsettled weather east, surpressing the heat and humidity further south in Southeast Europe and the Med Sea.

July chill comes this week to UK with Highland snow!

As for us here in the UK and Ireland, I hope you’ve enjoyed the warm and humid air which came with the excessive rains of the last 5 days because it’s about to get darn chilly for July.

As that rain-baring low slides east, a northwest flow kicks in which by mid to late week will support 850 temps (5,000ft above sea level) down at 0C. That is an impressively low thickness value for a July week and looks to support snow over the tops of the Grampians and Cairngorms with highs even at resort level (Aviemore/Braemar) of only 5-8C with a brisk 2-4C wind chill.

We will see intermittant rains with a low working down on that northwest flow so the unsettled theme will continue but it will be the unseasonable chill that will be the headline grabber this week. The period Wednesday through Friday looks to be chilliest with highs in Scottish and northern English towns and cities struggling to hit 11-13C while from the Midlands to Kent, highs may have a hard time hitting 15-16C.

Nights could be quite cold under clear skies and light winds. This regime allows the cold at 850 to sink down to the surface. Given the moderation of this air as it meets the ground, we may only rise those numbers of -3 to 0C at 850 by 4-8Cm, so it’s possible to get widespread lows from northern Scotland to the north Midlands of 4-7C, 4C being in rural areas, nearer 7C in towns. The coldest nights will be Thursday and Friday mornings. Highland Glens look to push 0C with snow covering some surrounding peaks.

Below are forecast 850 temps at 5,000 feet above sea level according to the GFS via the AccuWeather Pro site.

These are the GFS 850 temps for Monday Jul 8. (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

These are the GFS 850 temps for Thursday Jul 12. (Courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)

 

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