Well the focus of heavy and persistent rains over the last 48 hours has been across the Southwest of England where we’ve seen rivers burst their banks in parts of Devon. Tonight will see the Southeast under the gun of heaviest rains as the low begins to migrate east.
During tomorrow we see those rains persist over Kent and parts of Sussex but the worst of the rains appear to cross the Channel and North Sea into Belgium and the Netherlands, eventually getting as far east as Germany. As the front slams up against the hot, humid air over mainland Europe, I expect to see some significant flooding from central, eastern France up through the low countries. Scandinavia and the Baltics states are also under the gun of unsettled and quite stormy weather too while the heat dominates Poland, Russia and throughout the Mediterannean South.
Tomorrow will see rains persistent over the eastern side of England too while sunshine breaks out elsewhere but this will spark heavy showers and storms. Monday into Tuesday will see a drop in both daytime highs and nighttime lows and with another system works down aboard a northwest flow, yet more unsettled weather is to be had. In saying that, I think by around Wednesday towards next weekend, though it will be chilly with highs of only 14-16C widely across the UK, we should see a drier period. Wouldn’t be surprised to see night lows, if skies are clear, widely between 4-8C, even in some towns and cities as much colder air aloft gets drawn down across the UK.
This GFS surface chart shows the heaviest rains impacting the Low Countries later Sunday as the low pushes away from the UK opening the door to a cooler NW flow over the UK. (Chart courtesy of AccuWeather Pro)
There appears to be no heat or settled weather in store for the UK through the first week of August!
While looking out through the rest of July, we are not going to see any warmth or settled period I’m affraid. This trough is firmly locked in place till at least the end of week 1 of August and between now and then we could see one if not two SIGNIFICANT lows push in off the Atlantic.
The long range ECMWF for two straight runs (updated each Thurs) has shown a low down to at least 988mb striking Scotland around the 19th. This would not only bring more heavy rain UK-wide but would also bring us unusual July gales. The Atlantic jet is simply too strong to allow any heat which is getting stronger over Spain from extending north. The trough keeps surpressing this heat well to our south with lows feeding in.
One could argue that warm waters over the North Atlantic and cooler waters to the south as compared to normal is keeping the ridge further south and lows across our latitude and supporting an unusually strong and far south jet stream. I certainly am of the belief that the warm pool to our west is helping energize the lows as they approach the UK.
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