GFS & NCEP Models Show Western Europe 0 to 4°C Below Normal Next 8 Days!

Written by on July 6, 2012 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Map courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue/Policlimate.com

The two maps, above and below, courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue (Policlimate.com) show you the temperature anomalies for the next 8 days across Europe with the GFS above and NCEP below. What you’ll notice is that both show blue across the west indicating below normal temperatures while there is varying levels of warmth in the east and southeast. The GFS shows more oranges for parts of Poland, Russia and the Southeast while there is less area and depth of warmth, confined generally to parts of the Alps and Southeast with the NCEP model.

The moral is that we’re going to remain significantly below normal next week with coolest days and nights likely between next Wednesday and the weekend. While the overall average will run 0 to -2C, there are parts of the UK which may run an average of 4C below normal and that’s impressive for July.

Unfortunately if these maps were to look out at the next 20 days I would imagine there would be little change in the look of these maps as I had a quick glance at the 700+ hr ECMWF and it never has a ridge poking up into the UK through the rest of July. What it does have is for a 2nd straight run (long range model gets updated every Thursday) was a sub 988mb low crossing Scotland around the 19th and this could bring unseasonable gales and heavy rains. Yes, there will be plenty of heat pulsing in and out of Iberia but it simply never gets a chance to extend north given the unusually strong jet stream ripping across the Atlantic as well as the persistently negative NAO which holds the high over the North Atlantic and eastern Europe.

Map courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue/Policlimate.com

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