Rain Spreads North Over UK Tonight, Turning Showery With Warmer, More Humid Air Working In (Includes Video!)

Written by on July 3, 2012 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Scenes like this, looking south from the top of my house has been common since April and yet more rain is in the forecast (Courtesy of Mark Vogan)

Wet Start To Tuesday Gives Way To Dry Afternoon But The Day Will End The Way It Started!

Well, after a fairly damp old start to the day, the afternoon turned out not too bad here with a drying out of pavements and we even managed to get some brightness beaming through the thick cloudcover this afternoon. Yes, that’s about all we could muster. With mild air in place and lots of cloud, the air has been turning more humid once again.

Through tonight we unfortunately have our next batch of rain working up from the southwest and this will bring a wet night across the South of England. The organised band of rain will spread up through England, Wales and Scotland through tonight. Most places will likely see a period of steady rain before it turns more showery but watch out as some of those showers even during the overnight, may turn sharp and thundery.

During tomorrow, this rain band becomes broken up with showers scattering like a patchwork quilt but this breaking up of the rain band means sun has a chance at peaking through and allowing temperatures to warm further from today. Highs look to be pretty uniform as the air is flowing north and from a warmer source region, so despite clouds and rain we should see upwards of 21C over the brighter parts of Scotland as well as England and Wales during Wednesday.

Warmth From Europe Wraps Around Incoming Low, Should Allow Warmest Temps To Be Over Scotland Through Friday!

ECMWF upper chart for tomorrow shows low pushing into Ireland, while warmer air gets pulled north ahead of it. Showers may be fewer in the North and with any sun, highs may push 24C somewhere in Scotland (Courtesy of ECMWF)

Temperatures in Scotland this afternoon have actually warmed to around 22C near Inverness where sunshine has appeared and temperatures aloft are modestly warm. It’s all thanks to warmth building over the continent and a southeast flow pulling this warmth across the North Sea and over Scotland and the North of England. Further south, heights are lowering, the cloud is thicker and there is more showers around this afternoon, so temperatures are slightly cooler but there is a distinct mugginess in the air.

Be aware of very low cloud, mist and thickening fog overnight as the rain works north. It will remain mild and muggy at 14-17C.

Tomorrow will see a continuation of this warm feed into Northern England and Scotland and so with any sunshine, we may see 23C tomorrow but even further south where the low is going to be pushing in and dragging colder air in within the mid and upper atmosphere, temperatures at the surface could warm to around 22C.

By Thursday it’s almost a repeat performance with plenty of showers around and those could be heavy, packing thunder, lightning, gusty winds, small hail and the risk of localised flooding. I believe the central and southern half of the UK will bare the brunt of these heavy showers and thunderstorms given the low spinning directly overhead but these could easily extend further north also.

While Friday has similarities with warmer, continental air wrapping around the low, centred over Southern Britain will mean, where the sun breaks out, it will be the warmest in Britain.

The weekend sees a cooldown as the trough pushes cooler air down from the north. The warmer, more humid air will get kicked out and so the pattern continues!

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